Does Aung San Suu Kyi still have the same mesmerizing influence over her people that had helped her National League for Democracy (NLD) sweep the elections in 1990? Of course, she has won polls in 2015 and also in November 2020.
The foreign policy of world’s largest democracy – that is India – for long has been guided by adhocism. Besides largely toeing either the erstwhile Soviet Union or the United States, in the past more often it used to be bordering on the ideals of the spirit of ‘non aligned movement’ and upholding democratic principles and so on.
The result as expected used to be a confused approach. The dilemma was well caught in its engagement with eastern neighbours, Myanmar (formerly Burma). In other words, there was no long term Indian perspective on Myanmar.
For long, China has been an hyper active nation in Myanmar but over the last few years, New Delhi's relations have improved a lot.
During the visit by foreign secretary Harsh V Shringla and army chief Gen M M Naravane to Myanmar, in yet another milestone, India announced a grant of US dollar 2 million for the construction of the border bridge at Byanyu/Sarsichauk in Chin State that will provide increased economic connectivity between Mizoram and Myanmar.
Myanmarese intellectuals and civil liberty activists also share their views. They point out that both India and Myanmar also have respective domestic priorities. The democratic civilian government in Myanmar welcomes India’s increased engagement, which is a big push for Myanmar’s transition.
The Myanmar government would consider India’s military cooperation as the opportunity to gradually scaledown the role of army in civilian affairs in India's eastern neighbour.
The National League of Democracy under Aung San Suu Kyi is back in the seat of power.
NLD spokesperson Monywa Aung Shin said its "landslide" victory showed the people's support for the party, but added that it would have to "work on forming a national unity government".
Another NLD leader said, “People clearly realised the need for the NLD to get enough votes to form a government on their own".
Does it mean, the army's influence is on decline?
The NLD party has also announced that it would be inviting ethnic minority parties to work with it, an offer it did not make when it won the last election in 2015.
For reasons well known, sensing troubles on the China front, Suu Kyi as a pro-democracy campaigner has decided to inch towards India, which cherishes parliamentary democracy.
On the other hand, Myanmar's national debt stands at $10 billion, and $4 billion has to be paid to China. Thus, it is not without reason that the Myanmar government has sought New Delhi's help to expedite infrastructure projects. The NLD-led government, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, believes the world’s largest democracy - that is India - has the obligation to help its "nascent democratic neighbour" - Myanmar - by creating opportunities and facing challenges ahead together.
During the recent visit, Indian army chief Gen M M Naravane and Foreign Secretary Harsh V Shringla also met State Counsellor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the Commander in Chief of Defense Services Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. Gen Naravane also met Vice Senior General Soe Win, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of Myanmar Armed Services.
The military-civil wing (foreign ministry) diplomatic initiative was vital given certain sensitivity and strategic importance attached to the relations between two countries.
Myanmar has a peculiar constitutional mechanism giving the military extraordinary powers.
The 2008 Constitution grants the army a legal mandate to control the country’s three most powerful ministries: Defence, Border affairs and Home.
The military also has a political role as 25 percent of seats in each house of parliament is reserved for them. Essentially, the Generals thus has a de facto veto on any constitutional change.
Nevertheless, despite its poor showing, it may not be prudent at all to call military backed USDP a spent force.
Myanmar's political journey in thus at crossroads. Do we find army grip eroding? How long would Aung San Suu Kyi continue?
The lady guiding the democratic journey is now 75. Moreover, the USDP is waiting in the wings to fill in any vacuum that could be created once Suu Kyi retires!
In the 2015 election, the USDP won 8 percent of elected seats, but a relatively healthy 28 percent of the popular vote. "This suggests that the party has a kernel of support on which it could build," says a write up in 'The Diplomat'.
"Now 75 years of age, it is unclear how long the NLD leader will remain in active politics, and equally unclear is how her highly personalized party would adjust to her absence. Once “The Lady” steps aside, a vacuum could open up," it notes.
India needs to cultivate its eastern neighbour.
The 'China connections' helped the military rulers but not the people of Myanmar, and this is one message New Delhi should take in whatever it does in that country.
ends
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