How have opposition parties helped Narendra Modi?
Virtually shocked after unilateral alliance announcement made by the Samajwadi Party and the BSP, Rahul Gandhi pushed in Priyanka Gandhi – but gave her the onerous task of delivering in eastern UP – which in last few years ‘shining’ in reflected glory of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s influence on Varanasi has turned BJP bastion.
Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s initial and orchestrated media hype too has ended and taking a pragmatic line – she told a group of supporters and workers – “Do not expect miracle from me”. Perhaps eastern UP was already lost by second week of May 2019. Politics often follow a predictable script. Hopes that Priyanka Gandhi-Rahul (sister-bro) duo would swing 2019 mandate in favour of the Congress simply was short-lived.
American columnist George Will once said – columnists must have three seductive skills – he must be pleasurable, concise and gifted at changing the subject frequently. To a large extent – some of these qualities and need not in that order apply to politicians also. For BJP and Indian voters, Narendra Modi has been ‘pleasurable’ – the lethal combination of being a champion of Hindutva cause and a development catalyst has only endeared him more to the voters. Modi’s way of communicating with people too has been very good – crisp and direct and yes, he has been very successful in changing the course of debates.
On the other hand, Congress and opposition politics always seemed to have contributed in helping the BJP cause.
The likes of Sam Pitroda have started contributing towards BJP cause when the Balakot anti-terror attack during Modi-led dispensation is being compared with UPA’s ‘well decided’ move not to attack Pakistan post 26/11.
The BJP smelt the rat and none other than Prime Minister Modi called such remarks ‘shame’ and said Pitroda, onetime associate of Late Rajiv Gandhi, has tried to add to the ‘celebration’ of Pakistan National Day.
“Why we are doing everything to help BJP?,” said a leader on a day Tom Vadakkam, once said to be close to Congress leadership, decided to join the saffron party. Winning over Vadakkam into the saffron fold was Amit Shah’s style of politics.
Even the announcement that Sonia Gandhi will contest from Rae Bareily and Rahul himself from Amethi had hardly any big time political message. These are known facts and the moment Smriti Irani’s name came in for the seat; Mr Gandhi apparently drew cold feet. The saffron party worked to their plans and Chandra Prakash Mishra, a noted Brahmin leader from BSP, moved to the BJP.
Irked, a section of Congress leaders pushed the line that Rahul Gandhi should contest from Wayanad constituency in Kerala. Smriti Irani, Rahul’s rival of 2014, got the opportunity and pushed the hash tag ‘Bhag Rahul Bhag’ on the Twitter.
In fact, many BJP leaders say the very talk about ‘second constituency’ for Rahul shows – Ms Irani has won the battle 50 per cent.
"The very idea of this talk going on of his relocation from Amethi to down south is enough indication as to which way the wind is blowing," the BJP leader Ravi Shankar Prasad said.
There is no end to woes for a politician – like Rahul Gandhi – who does not think twice or even once before labelling baseless and a serious charge of corruption against country’s Prime Minister in office.
The ‘Chowkidar Chor hae’ was not only in bad taste and unbecoming of a party which has been in power for over six decades. The slogan has the potency of being more powerful and a negative catalyst than the slogan of ‘Maut Ka Saudagar’ in 2007 and ‘chaewalla’ jibes of 2014.
The BJP also questioned Rahul Gandhi’s source of income and - as expected - no convincing responses can come from Congress.
# Congress has not changed a bit and remains a family focussed party. Nowhere in the country, it has able to strike right chord with the masses. Sonia to Rahul – both have failed to revive party in West Bengal, Odhisa, Bihar, UP, Andhra, Tamil Nadu and Telangana. It lost out north east too.
In the other opposition parties also, things did not go as per their plans. BJP handled parties like Trinamool Congress giving it a befitting fight and ultimately picked up 18 Lok Sabha seats.
In more ways than one – the political parties were also forced to battle contradictions within themselves.
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Coronavirus Crisis : Challenges to Opportunities and Economic Reforms
But PM Modi chose to remain realistic as he did not want to risk people's lives for the economy. He especially wanted to keep the mortality rate of Covid-19 under check. And therefore mortality rate in the country by May 23-24, 2020 due to Covid-19 was around 2.49 per cent only.
In the words of Joint Secretary to Health Ministry, Lav Agarwal: The 15 most-impacted countries due to COVID-19, with a cumulative population almost equal to that of India, have seen 83 times more deaths and 34 times more infections.
By May 20, 2020, the Health Ministry also said that the COVID-19 recovery rate in the country has improved to 39.62 per cent and a staggeringly high 42,298 people have recovered from the unseen and killer virus.
One year since May 30, 2019 when Narendra Modi was sworn in for second term, much has moved in socio political realm in the country. But before dealing in details with other issues including Ram Mandir issue, it would be worth talking about Covid-19 crisis and how the Prime Minister led the country of 130 crore in the royal combat.
May 3rd, 2020 was the 40th day of a nationwide lockdown enforced since mid-night of March 24-25. The lockdown was relaxed in some areas, but cases continued to spread in most cities, especially in national capital New Delhi and business hub Mumbai and also in some rural pockets.
Military helicopters showered flower petals on hospitals and medicos as army bands played outside medical buildings and police stations across India. Certainly a rarest of rare event, the gesture aimed to encourage and honor frontline warriors fighting coronavirus. Little to dispute that this was proposed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi – who is known to many as a time tested protagonist of the politics of symbolism. Air force, navy and army personnel joined in expressing the nation's gratitude to healthcare workers, police and paramilitary forces.
It was the third such display of ‘symbolism’ to express gratitude to health workers in India. Earlier Modi had made a personal call to citizens to light lamps and blow conch shells, as is followed in Hindu rituals, to encourage Covid-19 warriors from their balconies. Prime Minister also had asked in first such exercise to clap from their balconies and beat steel plates. Of course there was some bad experience too as enthusiastic Indians and most in villages and slums, who perhaps live in homes without balconies, marched in groups on the streets, chanting "go corona, go."
A question could be easily asked, what does Narendra Modi gain from such symbolism?
Those who know his politics will easily appreciate that a ‘committed Hindu nationalist’, he is - Modi has always reaped rich dividends from symbolic acts. Hence as I spoke to a Varanasi-based educationist – the response was candid: "Those of us who have followed Modi's politics know that his politics has been akin to throwing some pebbles into a large pond and seeing ripples. He not only enjoys this but it has also actually helped him in the past”.
Bhadra cites a practical example to strengthen his argument. When Modi first selected Varanasi, the city on the banks of the holy River Ganges, to contest the parliamentary election in 2014, he had said: "Mujhe Ganga Maa ne bulaya hae (I am here amongst you at the directives of the Mother Ganga)”. Well it is well known that Hindus regard the river Ganga as a mother river (read God).
Modi, who comes from Gujarat state in western India, in 2014 had decided to contest from Varanasi so that he could consolidate Hindu votes for his party's kitty in India’s largest state. Varanasi is not only an important spiritual city for Hindus but is also part of the same Uttar Pradesh --- where BJP had lost its base. Finally out of 80 of 543 parliamentary seats, in 2014, BJP could win 71 seats in the state. In the words of Amit Shah – as well – the road to BJP’s win in 2019 general election also came via Uttar Pradesh.
This time – BJP could manage to win 62 seats braving double incumbency while two more seats went to Apna Dal.
Coming back to corona fight and Modi’s symbolism; the symbols of blowing conch shells and lighting of lamps to fight the coronavirus perhaps help him push his strong Hindu nationhood idea. Therefore, it is not without good reason that in April 2020 - BJP leader Virendra Sachdeva from the Good Governance cell said: "Post Covid-19, Modi will emerge as the tallest leader in the country of 1.3 billion people. Various international surveys have also hailed him as a best-performing world leader against the virus”.
The optimism is not without good reason. Modi's popularity had shot up to the highest among global leaders, according to Morning Consult, a US-based research body. It claimed that around April 21 Modi had a net approval rating of 68, up from 62 at the beginning of 2020.
Of course, not all were amused and predictably so. "....it looks like a political orchestra," went a write up in 'National Herald', the newspaper backed by Congress leaders. Some others have called it a political 'circus'.
Former Congress president Rahul Gandhi, who often tries to project himself as Modi's chief rival, said it would be erroneous to start ‘celebrating’ the success of Lockdown vis-a-vis Covid-19. He said the lockdown against corona is only a "pause" and the virus can leave its gory impact with long-term results, especially economically.
Of course, what could be underlined that Modi has been playing to the gallery and it has kept his core voters intact, even during a crisis like the Covid-19 pandemic. Needless to add – the Prime Minister systematically built up his image with symbolism. For example, in 2012, as Gujarat state chief minister, he declined to put on a Muslim skull cap given to him by a Muslim cleric. Accepting it could have diluted his well-known image as anti-Muslim and a strong Hindu leader. However, he does not mind putting on a Sikh turban when he visits their Gurudwaras, especially in Punjab. Sikhism has a history of being closer to Hinduism. In Ahmedabad, Congress leader Ilyas Qureshi said - "Modi knows the power of symbolism and an Islamophobic campaign. He has also sustained it well, targeting his vote bank”.
BJP leaders and supporters say the criticism against the recent joint action of defence forces to encourage corona warriors shows the opposition's poverty of ideas and lack of understanding. "It is the right time to lift morale," said Modi supporter and retired army general G.D Bakshi in a debate on Republic TV. "Military men like me fully understand the importance of morale ... the psychological strength in the face of wounds, disease and deaths. Please do not underestimate the psychosomatic aspects," Bakshi had said. In this context, it can be safely stated that while Modi has sustained the politics of symbolism well targeting his vote bank politics, often others end up harming them. Unlike Narendra Modi, another BJP leader L K Advani had paid a big price when he went to Pakistan in 2005 and described the founder of Pakistan Mohammed Ali Jinnah a 'secular politician'.
There was a strong economical element in Modi’s battle against Corona.
There was a strong fear of crumbling economy due to lockdown as also the government’s role came in for sharp criticism over the issue of migrant workers. Firstly, the big imbroglio over migrant workers and how the genuine issue was made a political hot potato and ended up making it a big farcical drama.
Human agony is certainly undeniable but the issue was blown out of proportion also in a section of the media which formed part of the larger ‘eco system’ of the sickular brigade. For example Ramchandra Guha, a cricket writer turned ‘self styled historian’ went to the extent of applauding South African government.
“The Prime Minister of India, and he alone, bears responsibility for the enormous suffering of our migrant workers. South Africa’s President, who thinks before he acts, gave several days notice to allow migrants to return home before a lockdown took effect” – tweeted the ‘propagandist’ Guha. But he was proved wrong the moment international media highlighted that – “Thousands waited in miles-long lines on the outskirts of Pretoria for food aid amid South Africa's lockdown”.
The same ‘eco system’ dished out their versions trying to push the line that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's sudden announcement of a lockdown – with a mere four hours notice – had rendered huge number of migrant workers jobless. It was argued that they were ‘ignored’ in the entire bargain because they formed no voting bloc. Of course states like Jharkhand, Bihar and Odisha did not have sound economic conditions themselves and so now these workers are returning to these villages where thousands are already struggling for food and jobs for years and so what happens to the new lot of ‘job seekers’.
Of course, from government’s point of view, the Prime Minister knew the significance of the economic challenges vis-a-vis Lockdown and the corona crisis. "From the economic angle, we have paid a high price," Modi said in his Mann-Ki-Baat address. But he had rightly laid emphasis on his new found pet phrase ‘Jaan hae toh Jahan haen --- Survival is the key and so people's lives are more important”.
The lack of cash in India and with the Indian government is a reality.
In April 2020, British brokerage firm Barclays had said a lockdown until May 3 only may cause India an economic loss of US$234.4 billion. Moreover, adding to the woes of the government, India's unemployment rate – according to some estimates - had shot up to 26.2 percent by the third week of April, a sevenfold increase from last year. An extended lockdown further damaged the labor market. Cash buffers have already dried up and India was set to be confronted with a sharp decline in government revenues and economic growth for at least the next six months. "In many offices, retrenchment policies are being explored, and some companies have already decided to cut salaries to employees," said opposition Congress party leader Adhir Chowdhury.
The tourism industry also had crashed across India, as in other parts of the world. The industry engages millions of people in restaurants, travel and hospitality.
The tourism industry generated US$240 billion, more than 9 percent of India's national GDP, in 2018 and supported 42 million jobs, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council.
"The year is the worst for the tourism sector," said an office bearer with the Indian Tour Operators Association. The labor-intensive real estate sector witnessed a plunge and experts presumed that the industry could need at least six years to return to normal. India is on the verge of an unprecedented economic catastrophe.
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