Have things gone wrong for Narendra Modi in Bihar?
Is RSS not very keen for BJP victory under the Modi-Amit Shah duo? Have people
of Bihar forgotten Lalu Prasad’s Jungle Raj? Or it's Nitish Kumar’s personal
image that’s the real game-changer?
Amid these questions, the answers for most if not
all these questions revolve around the political-journalism’s guessing game.
But there are certain issues – and ear-on-ground feedback based on first two
rounds of polls and those need closer scrutiny.
The first two rounds of polls in Bihar on October 12
and 16 have left BJP-led NDA in certain doubtful situations as there's no clear
trend emerging in their favour and at the same time there's large scale
apprehension that Maha Dalit votes in the name of Jitan Ram Manjhi is not
getting transferred to the NDA kitty.
Muslim Women: Can they trust Lalu? |
"The polling of first two phases gives us
confidence but no surety," summed up a BJP source admitting the perceived
division among smaller caste groups (non Yadavs and
non Paswans) have thrown up new challenges before
the leadership.
BJP's own analysis is while Manjhi and his party
candidates have themselves done well in the seats they are contesting, the
smaller caste groups vote share is not quite getting transferred to other NDA
candidates. Moreover, there has been a latent one-upmanship battle on the
ground between Maha Dalit (Manjhi) and Dalit (Paswan) party workers.
Thus, the BJP’s internal take is at best from the
first two phases of polls – the NDA may bag 41 to 45 seats out of 81. This,
according to BJP strategists, is much less than what was expected based on
their assessment about two months back.
Results and Methods |
This resulted in a sort of knee-jerk reaction typical
of Narendra Modi’s style of functioning. Like most hard task masters, he looks for results more than the methods.
Three member panel was set up
comprising Ananth Kumar, Dharmendra Yadav and Bhupinder Yadav.
The unconfirmed
reports say they had a dressing down from the Prime Minister himself.
However, acting quickly the party’s leadership took
feedback from the panel and decided to bring about certain changes in its
electoral strategy in Bihar campaign with the general focus now shifting to
local state leaders, caste factors on ground and also banking on the goodies.
While the media has already tried to lay emphasis on cancellation of rallies,
the BJP’s thought process is if Modi’s mega rallies despite attracting crowd is
not ensuring turn them into voters, they should focus on state leaders.
“What’s more important, a mere prestige issue of
mega rallies or winning votes,” remarks a state BJP leader.
In effect the emphasis is not on state leaders as experts in TV studios and 'sickular journalism' feel; its on caste management.
Therefore, where Brahmin voters matter – the party has now lately come with
posters of Ashwini Chaubey and if Yadavs matter, its Nand Kishore Yadav and Hukumdev Narayan Yadav.
To break things into simpler forms, BJP’s take away
from first two phases of elections are the following:
- Muslim
consolidation and smaller caste groups division can prove nightmare for NDA.
- Huge
women turnout -- the fair sex want to have say in government formation and
peace/law and order situation being their principal focus.
But BJP sees a catch in Muslim consolidation and larger turnout. “The
women Muslim voters may not like to get back to Lalu Prasad raj as they too
were victims during that period,” a Muslim BJP leader says adding large turnout
of women thus can be interpreted as going in “favour of NDA and even JD(U)
candidates but Lalu Prasad’s RJD may have to pay price”.
BJP sources, importantly, claim that "the fear of
Yadav-Raj in Bihar (alias Jungle Raj and lawlessness)" - will help BJP-led NDA. The Yadavs are divided on the ground and Lalu
factor has brought in an undercurrent of "non-Yadavs"
consolidation". The Yadav division is attributed to Pappu Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav's presence though marginally.
That BJP wants to make a big issue of Lalu Prasad vis-à-vis jungle-raj allegation can be understood from Ravi Shankar Prasad’s remarks, "Only the NDA can give peace, stability and development”. BJP has also dug out an old letter of Nitish Kumar lampooning at Lalu regime.
With elections in 32 assembly seats in the second
phase today and 49 seats in the first phase earlier, all eyes will now be on
the remaining 162 constituencies.
The people of Bihar, mostly mocked outside their state for one reason or the other', holds the trump card to decide next course of national politics.
Politics is often like billiard. You hit one ball,
but the other goes into the hole. My humble curiosity is, will Bihar election
help India get a new Finance Minister?
(ends)
Tail Piece:
I have a bad habit of telling some of my best friends, “stop behaving
like Biharis”. But Indian history has had Bihari characters who changed the
course of India. To expose my Bong-know-all vanity, Jayaprakash Narayan was a
Bihari. And my Bengalis, we hear of an allegation that a Bengali tried to bribe
Subhas Bose family members with money. We may redefine an old Bengal-prided
phrase: ‘what Bihar will decide in next fortnight, will impact national
politics’.
Conjectures made and motives suggested are not that grounded...Muslim women don't vote differently than their men folks. Yet, the tales within the BJP camp are correct, but the larger story is not told...
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