The much awaited November 8, 2015 elections in Myanmar will mark a significant milestone
in that country’s history. The polls will be important even from New Delhi’s point
of view – both strategically and diplomatically - as an 'unstable' Myanmar is always
a matter of concern vis-a-vis insurgency-hit northeastern states for India.
The government of India attaches great importance to
its immediate eastern neighbor. The government under Prime Minister Narenra
Modi has in recent months held enhanced interactions and successfully
established better relations with that country aiming to seek strategic
advantage in more ways than one. There is certainly a growing thirst
for change in that country and the poll results will spell out the tone for the
future of democracy in Myanmar.
Blogger in Corridors of Parliament |
Now
importantly for New Delhi, the Indian government needs to be on guard about
certain things.
Certain
issues are very sensitive for Indian diplomatic establishment especially in the
context of Prime Minister Modi’s keenness to resolve insurgency problems in the
north east India and also have improved relations between Nagas in Nagaland and
Manipur with the Nagas in Myanmar.
India shares a long land
frontier with Myanmar that runs longer than 1600 km. A sizeable
portion in western Myanmar is dominated by the ethnic Nagas, who
share biological fraternity with the Nagas in India.
Security experts therefore
often say that the condition of Nagas in Myanmar can have some impact
vis-à-vis the insurgency movement of the Nagas this side. India is already talking to
insurgent groups while Myanmar authorities are working now for ceasefire with the
armed groups active in their land.
Earlier in June this year there was
some cooperation between Indian armed forces and Myanmar. More such cooperation
will be solicited.
An enhanced dose of democracy in
Myanmar and especially free hand to local aspirations of Myanmarese Nagas in
western Myanmar will be interesting feature to look at. But the people of Myanmar and
political establishment in that country have to also ironically grapple with
certain realities.
Insurgency can be tackled with Myanmar |
There is a system under which 25 per cent of the seats
are reserved for the military in parliament. This gives the Myanmar military
“veto rights” against any drastic constitutional change.
As a matured neighbour, India needs to be vigil on
these developments too.
On
it part, repeatedly the Myanmar government has maintained that the country can
play the role of a bridge between India and South-East Asia. This actually
gives due recognition to India’s Look and Act East Policy pursued with much
enthusiasm by the
Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The
Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval was assured during his June
meetings that Myanmar will not allow its territory to be used by anti-India
insurgent groups.
These words are certainly assuring and worth appreciation
in diplomatic parlance.
Last elections were held in Myanmar in 2010 and
subsequent to that only a measured democracy has been granted in that country. Now
as the date for polling day approaches, the debates are on how and what to
really expect from these polls.
Significantly enough 25 years ago
in 1990 when the people of Myanmar had given a landslide victory to Aung San
Suu Kyi's party National League For Democracy, contrary to the mandate, the
military rulers had nullified the polls. Ms Suu Kyi was also banned from
holding government office. But things have changed a lot in last two-and-half
decades.
The military junta has shown flexibility and tilt
towards appreciating the overwhelming sentiments of people’s demand for
democracy. Importantly, the western world opinion on Myanmar has also undergone
change.
Myanmar is no longer a pariah before the global community. ASEAN members are with it. Therefore, the coming elections in Myanmar will be vital in many ways.
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As a close neighbour, the outcome
of the elections and the subsequent developments in Myanmar would be vital for India. In
recent years, India has rightly adopted a more pragmatic approach towards Myanmar.
India truly needs to pursue its track for a ‘Comprehensive Myanmar Policy’ with enhanced emphasis on the economic and strategic cooperation.
India truly needs to pursue its track for a ‘Comprehensive Myanmar Policy’ with enhanced emphasis on the economic and strategic cooperation.
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