".....the winds favour me and I fly", says Arun Jaitley: Budget 2017-18 woos farmers, middle class and industry in Please-All Fiscal proposals

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley today sounded optimistic more than once and in his spirited speech, waxed eloquently, highlighting measures aimed to augment investment and also improve rural economy, but at the same time, ensure upholding of economic prudence.

"It is said when my goal is in sight, the winds favour me and I fly. There is no other day more appropriate than this," Mr Jaitley said in his concluding remarks. Earlier, he said he began the budget speech stating, "Spring is a season of optimism".

Constrained by code of conduct in view of assembly elections in five states including Uttar Pradesh while the government could not announce major sops for these poll-bound states, the Budget 2017-18, however, sought to target the agrarian community with enhanced budget allocation for major schemes focusing on farmers.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley today announced a whopping Rs 1 lakh crore hike in the credit target for the next fiscal to Rs 10 lakh crore as part of the government’s efforts to double farm incomes. 
The government's commitment to double farm income by 2021 was announced in last year's budget.
Mr Jaitley while presenting Budget in the Lok Sabha, said, the target for agricultural credit in 2017-18 has been fixed at a record level of Rs 10 lakh crore and added: "We will take special efforts to ensure adequate flow of credit to the under serviced areas, the eastern states and Jammu and Kashmir". Moreover, the Finance Minister said a  dedicated  Micro  Irrigation  Fund  will  be  set  up  in  NABARD  to achieve the goal, ‘per drop more crop’. "The Fund will have an initial corpus of Rs 5,000 crore". 

Jaitley at his sarcastic best: Mocks at citizens' tax evading habits

New Delhi, Feb 1 (UNI) A good orator that he is, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley today made optimum use of his glib talk ability and was at his sarcastic best hitting out at the common citizenry for what is generally given out as the national habit to evade tax payment. 

"I  place before  you  certain  data  to  indicate  that  our  direct  tax  collection  is  not commensurate  with the  income  and consumption pattern of  Indian economy," Finance Minister said in budget speech presented in the Lok Sabha. "The  number  of  people  showing income more than Rs 50-lakh in the entire country is only 1.72-lakh.  We can contrast  this  with the  fact  that  in  the  last  five  years,  more  than 1.25-crore cars have been sold, and number of Indian citizens who flew abroad, either for business or tourism, is two crores in the year 2015.  From all these figures we  can  conclude  that  we  are  largely  a  tax  non-compliant  society," Mr Jaitley said even as a number of members were seen giggling or whispering to each other. India’s tax to GDP ratio is very low, and the proportion of direct tax to  indirect  tax  is  not  optimal  from  the  view  point  of  social  justice, Mr Jaitley said. 

Finance Minister elaborated that  as  against  estimated 4.2 crore persons engaged  in  the organised sector employment, the   number of   individuals filing return   for   salary income are only 1.74 crore. "As against 5.6 crore informal sector individual enterprises and firms  doing  small  business  in  India,  the  number  of  returns filed by this category are only 1.81 crore".

He said out of the 13.94 lakh companies registered  in India  upto  31st March,  2014; 5.97  lakh companies  have  filed their  returns  for  Assessment  Year  2016. He said of  the 5.97  lakh companies which have filed their returns for Assessment Year 2016-17 so far, as many as 2.76  lakh companies have  shown losses  or  zero  income. About 2.85  lakh companies have  shown profit  before  tax  of  less  than Rs 1  crore, while  28,667 companies  have shown  profit  between 1 crore to 10  crore and  only 7781 companies have profit before tax of more than Rs 10 crores.

Trying to put an argument in justification of the need for citizens to pay tax, he said, "When too many people evade taxes, the burden of their share falls on those who are honest and compliant." "I appeal  to  all  citizens  of  India  to  contribute  to  Nation Building  by  making  a small payment of 5 percent tax if their income is falling in the lowest slab of Rs 2.5 lakhs to Rs 5 lakhs," Mr Jaitley said.

Budget gives a push to digital economy, note ban to ensure bigger GDP: FM

New Delhi, Feb 1 (UNI) The Budget 2017-18 presented in Parliament today seeks to give a major push to the digital economy and weed out corruption and black money, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said here even as he asserted that the demonetisation drive announced in November will ensure a cleaner economy and bigger GDP.
"Demonetisation seeks to create a new ‘normal’ wherein the GDP would be bigger, cleaner and real.The exercise is part of the Government’s resolve to eliminate corruption, black money, counterfeit currency and terror funding," Mr Jaitley said in his one-and-half-hour long speech.
Giving digital economy as envisioned by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Finance Minister said the government has decided that no transaction above Rs 3 lakh will be permitted in cash.

This decision has been taken by the government following the recommendation of Special Investigation Team on black money to ban cash transactions above Rs 3 lakh, the Finance Minister said.
On this there will be a necessary amendment to the Income Tax Act in the Finance Bill.
"Promotion of a digital economy is an integral part of Government’s strategy to clean the system and weed out corruption and black money.  It has a  transformative impact in      terms   of   greater formalisation of      the economy  and  mainstreaming  of  financial  savings  into  the  banking  system," he said amid thumping of desks by treasury benches.
"This,  in  turn,  is  expected  to  energise  private  investment  in  the country. India  is now  on the  cusp  of  a  massive  digital revolution," said Mr Jaitley.

Muzaffarnagar:Ground Zero- A political chawpal and story of 'Hindu Jat uncle' and his Muslim Jat nephew

The opposite of love is not hate, it’s indifference. Perhaps, it is this feeling and added to it - the element of fear that had driven out Jat Muslims from Khard village in Budhana Assembly segment out of their homes in September 2013.      But the Jat Muslims are back in the village now and trying to reconcile with the fate. 
      For 56-year-old Haji Ayub Ali, the world had changed in September 2013 when he heard that Hindu bhai-log (brethern) had decided to attack his village targeting Muslims.
       "I am here and my family is back. But the pain remains," he told UNI taking his turn with the traditional Hookah. Alongside his younger brother Qayum Ali, members of both the families had left the village to a "safer destination".

Ayub Ali and his Hindu friend Ravindra Mallick

But Ayub had stayed back in his house thinking he should at least think of the future and that his parental house should not be left unguarded.
        Didn't he fear for his life?
        ''Of course I did....Dar sabko lagta hae (Everyone would fear)," he says shyly but hastens to add in the same breath, "I had the protection of my Hindu uncle Rajpal Singh Mallick. He came and stayed in my house for a week when my entire family was away".

The story sounds too good to be true. "Wait for a while," says Ayub and dials a number using his black Motorala mobile of late 1990s model and within 15 minutes - his childhood friend Ravindra Mallick arrives into the courtyard riding his motor cycle.
The message seems to be clear. This Hindu friend is just a phone call away and he rushed to his Muslim friend in a short notice. "Me and Ayub grew up together. My father loves Ayub a lot. So when he heard that Ayub is alone in this house, he came to give him protection," says Ravindra Mallick proudly.
       
But why then Muzaffarnagar riots happened? And why Ayub's family had to flee?     
The informal chawpal-type meeting in Ayub's spacious neatly maintained courtyard had just begun. Shahnawaz Ahmed, a member of Jamaat-e-Islami Hind also present in the meeting tries to sum up the paradox: "Tragedy is no one is pious. All are thugs. If BJP tries to play with fear psychosis of Hindus, Samajwadi Party has been doing so with Muslims. The result is Muzaffarnagar type conflicts".

Shahnawaz of Jamaat sharing his views

Ayub agrees and nods his head in agreement. His brother Qayum is more vocal and says,"The riots could not have happened without politicians' complicity. Both BJP and Samajwadi Party are responsible". Ravindra Mallick also joins the debate and says, "Many Muslims who were victims of the riots did not get their compensation because they did not have money to bribe concerned people. I don't think all the Muslims will vote for SP". 
"Things could have been controlled if Samajwadi regime was more sincere about it," says Ayub.
The Muzaffarnagr riots have left many Muslims homeless and according to UP government's assessment, nine villages were "identified as worst affected". Several Muslims seem to agree to what Ayub says. In the meantime, one gets a message that the Jats - either Hindus or Muslims - in Budhana Assembly segment are likely to vote for RLD candidate Yograj Singh. Many Hindu Jats in the locality say, the community has decided to "defeat" BJP -- as the party betrayed Jats on the issue of reservation.
       So will RLD nominee win the seat?

    
"You cannot say so easily. Muslims always play influential role in elections in this constituency and thus Samajwadi Party candidate Pramod Tyagi has a fair chance," says Saddam Hussain, 26, a riot victim who had to leave his village Phugana and is now residing in a rehabilitation colony Falah-E-Aam set up by Jamaat-I-Islami Hind.
However, many in the colony are not happy with Samajwadi regime of Akhilesh Yadav either.
Naushad (35) says, "It is a myth to believe Samajwadi Party is pro-Muslim. They did nothing during riots. Our tragedy is even BSP did not do anything.Thanks to Jamaat that we survived and now staying here in the rehabilitation colony".
  It is also a fact that BSP's Sayeda Begum may attract substantial Muslim votes and ultimately influence the poll outcome.
        Hence, probably things stay unclear.

Like many constituencies in western UP witnessing four-cornered contest, Budhana Assembly segment is probably heading for a photo finish.
       Jats - either Muslims or Hindus - want to vote for a genuine Jat, but if Ravindra Mallik's contention is to be understood in right perspective, "BJP has good support base in Budhana town and the Nagar panchayat chairman is a BJP man Jitendra Tyagi".
       All Muslims in the area are not against BJP per se. "BJP's Nagar palika victory was like Narendra Modi's wave in Lok Sabha polls. There was a sort of wave," says Imtiaz Haq, a small time trader, also identifying himself as a BJP supporter.

In the 2012 Assembly elections, Samajwadi Party nominee Nawazish Alam Khan won this constituency by 10,588 votes. While has polled 68,210 votes, the nearest contender was Rajpal Singh Baliya of RLD who got 57,622 votes.
(ends)  
(UNI Election campaign/on Field story)

Republic Day Musings: Face to Face with Reality – 'Desh Agey Barh Raha Hae....'

Thinking of a fresh blog as part of my offerings as the Republic Day musings, I am reminded of a famous quote from Shakespaeare’s ‘Hamlet’: There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy”.

India is marching ahead ! The Indian Independence, transformation into a ‘republic’ and subsequently a matured democracy is certainly one such phenomenon – wherein more things “do happen” beyond comprehensions. Let us examine how are we perceived from across the border – in Pakistan.  India is always presumed as an adversary and a strong one. Hence Pakistanis, since the partition have always nurtured the idea of a need for a ‘strong’ Pakistan – that can take on India. The thrust on centralization of the establishment in Islamabad led to over dependence on the military. In its part this contributed towards “democratic deficit” for Pakistan, as argued by author Christophe Jafferlot in his book ‘The Pakistan Paradox-Instability and Resilience’. 

But how has India emerged as nation over last 70 years? In the persective of new US President Donald Trump, India is certainly an important player and will be his key ally in a possible long run war to contain China. But if China continues to expand its global outreach and the American administration confines more in domestic policy, India could be looking towards friends like Israel and Japan, another Asian power which is not comfortable with China’s rise.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi without naming China has lately spoken about “rising ambitions and rivalries” in Asia. All these combine to underline the global importance of India.

The global interest of India is definitely not linked to the rise of ‘Moditva’ phenomenon in Indian politics although the present regime has tried to give some definite directions – however. The interest about India has expanded manifold in last two decades because of the way harsh economic realities today dominate the world. India’s human resources is a vital reality, so is the inherent economic resilience power. Prime Minister Narendra Modi without naming China has lately spoken about “rising ambitions and rivalries” in Asia. All these combine to underline the global importance of India.

The global interest of India is definitely not linked to the rise of ‘Moditva’ phenomenon in Indian politics although the present regime has tried to give some definite directions – however. The interest about India has expanded manifold in last two decades because of the way harsh economic realities today dominate the world. India’s human resources is a vital reality, so is the inherent economic resilience power.

Reality can have metaphorical content; that does not make it less real, says Salman Rushdie’s booker prize winning book ‘Midnight’s Children’.

Mark Tully, former BBC man and longtime India watcher I had interviewed in 1998-99, had caustically said, people of India and also in many parts of the world assume that India will march ahead braving its numerous problems – provided it learnt well to do with its under-performing bureaucracy.

India has changed and changed in more ways than one during the last two-and-half years under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is not very popular with Indian intellectuals and the media. “Desh agey barh raha hae…” is more than a symbolic slogan even as Modi detractors would bring in demonetization and other issues to suggest that the country has declined. Mamata Banerjee and Rahul Gandhi think alike these days.

But the Modi administration has brought in some changes and even made armies of work-shirkers in bank employees – work beyond their normal duty hours for weeks. “The entire work load of Modi’s domentisation drive was shouldered dutifully by the bank employees,” says a family friend of mine – whose charming wife and a respected Boudi of mine is a banker. Left to her, it is another debate – my favourite sister-in-law often would say she works “more” than her husband. Now, that’s personal! 

Burj Khafila turns Tri-Colour: A new chapter in Indo-UAE ties

Moving on, India’s march as envisioned by the policy framers today is not about only winning – but about winning it convincingly. In the process, often, my fear is the Modi admirers, the ministers and Modi’s close confidants are today also captives of 

their own propaganda. 

But talking about the 68^th Republic Day, one must refer to the Presidential address – the last one from Pranab Mukherjee.

An articulate politician with all virtues of a snobbish Bengali, Pranabda left a parting shot for Prime Minister Modi. And as a known Modi-bhakt, I don’t grudge – the President rightly did his job. The Governance is not about 'glory' of ruler, propounded President Mukherjee. He cautioned against glorification of individual leader(s) or even race and pointed out in no unambiguous term that 'happiness' and well being of the common people should involve a right synthesis of outcome of
economic and non-economic parameters.
One of my predecessors left on my table a framed quotation which reads (and I quote): “The object of government in peace and in war is not the glory of rulers or races but the happiness of the common man," he said in his customary address to the nation on the eve of the Republic Day.
        Happiness is fundamental to the human experience of life, said 81-year-old Mukherjee, whose tenure would end in July and added: "Happiness is equally the outcome of economic and non-economic parameters. The quest for happiness is closely tied to sustainable development, which combines human well-being, social inclusion and environmental sustainability”.

The personal glorification is edifice of Indian politics. It was also during so called ‘democratic’ Nehru era – when even Bollywood patriotic songs and picturisation on patriotism was linked to Chacha Nehru. There would be comparisons of Jhansi Rani and Bhagat Singh with country’s first Prime Minister. 

Nevertheless, the moot point is Modi should himself stay away from ‘personal glorification’ even as – one does not grudge the essential part of it because otherwise he will not win votes.

But the focus should be on work. Some lapses he could have avoided must have been avoided. The Land Bill was an unnecessary confrontation his regime indulged in even as the role of opposition Congress and other parties on this was not appreciable either. To me, making it a sheer prestige issue was a mistake from either side. Prime Minister Modi must deliver and his detractors would like him exactly do the opposite.

Nevertheless, on social front, it goes without saying – religious pluralism is part of India’s genes. It must be cherished but the emphasis on ‘appeasement’ as being undertaken by Mamata Banerjee too is unwarranted. Actually it only adds to insult the greater wisdom of Muslims in her state. There’s no justification in giving Ram-Dhenu ‘rainbow’ a new ‘sickular’ name. That’s also one kind of fundamentalism.

The polity of ‘sickular establishment’ is also thus rooted in contradictions. The minority polarization actually leads to the reverse of ‘majority’ polarization.  India needs to be careful about it. Pakistan had presumed that Islam plus Urdu language and hatred towards India of ‘kafirs’ would sail it through. Today, it faces serious threats including existential ones. 

Secularists in India need to draw some lessons. They must ponder: Why BJP emerged in the centre of Indian politics latching onto the Hindutva ideologies.
They believe they were always on the right side, but then why did the majority Indians reject them?  (ends)

    

Deepa Karmakar of Tripura among Padma Shri award winners of 2017

In sports category, Padma Shri award this year will go to Olympiad Dipa Karmakar of Tripura. The 23-year-old Karmakar is credited for making India proud at the world stage by coming fourth in Gymnastics at Rio Olympics of 2016.

The Olympiad Girl Dipa

In the social service category, another recipient of Padma Shri award will be West Bengal's "volunteer fire fighter" Bipin Ganatra.
A school dropout and recognised as a volunteer fire-fighter by Kolkata Fire Department, he is credited for being only one person apart from the fire brigade officials who has been to almost every fire accident site in Kolkata in past 40 years.
Oldest woman exponent of Kerala's famous martial art Kalaripayatu, Meenakshi Amma has been selected for the Padmashree Award this year in the Martial Art category among others, the government announced today.
      In Science and Engineering category, the prestigious award goes to Telangana-based Chintakindi Mallesham, who has to his credit to reduce the time taken to weave a sari from 4 hours to 1.5 hour – help freeing up women for higher value chain and more remunerative work.
      According to government announcement, in social work category, 68-year-old Daripalli Ramaiah gets the Padma Shri award for his mission to plant one crore trees. Also known as Chetla Ramaiah, it is said whereever he sees a barren spot, he takes out seeds from his pocket and plant them.  

Captain of Indian Blind cricket team Shekhar Naik would also get Padma award. An ace batsman, he has his credit in leading his team to win first T20 World Cup in 2012 and ODI World Cup in 2014. Also an all rounder, Naik has so far played 63 matches across all formats of the game.
      Another sportstar to bag the prestigious award will be Paralympian Gold medalist Mariyappan Thangavelu, who won Gold in Rio in 2016 Paralympics - T42 High Jump.
      In the agriculture sector, physically challenged farmer Genabhai Dargabhai Patel of Gujarat would get the award. A farmer from village-Sarkari Golia in Banaskantha district, he is credited for transforming drought hit border district into the largest producer of pomegranate in the country.
      In Literature and Education, US-based Anant Agarwal would bag the Padma award. He is founder of  an online platform 'edX' -- that brings courses from the likes of MIT and Havard at all "at no cost", the government citation said.
      Among others the distinction of winning Padma Shri awards this year would also be shared by Suki Bommagowda, the Nightingle of the Halakki Vokkaliga tribes of Karnataka, Odisha's singer Jitendra Haripal, writer activist Eli Ahmed from Assam.
      While Mr Haripal is a top exponent of Kosli – Sambalpuri songs having rendered his voice to 1000 songs, 81-year-old Ms Ahmed is credited for establishing first Assam Film Institute in the in the NE Region, the government announcement said.

Meenakshi Amma

In social work, West Bengal's 'ambulance dada' Karimul Haque also gets the prestigious award. He is credited for running a 24x7 service in Dhalabari village of West Bengal’s Jalpaiguri district. He  transports the poor to the district hospital on his bike, often providing first aid as well.  He has single saved over 3,000 lives on his mission. Haque's  bike has virtually become the only lifeline for 20 villages in and around Dhalabari.
      The Padma award winners also include 'Swachta Doot' Pune-based Dr Mapuskar, who is said to have convinced the villagers of Dehu (Pune) to build toilets way back in 1960. The entire village had moved from open defecation to building their own latrines in 2004. He also introduced low-cost sanitation. Punjab-based Balbir Singh Seechewal would get the award for having successfully mobilised volunteers and raised funds from locals and created public awareness not to dispose sewage into the river and thus helping to keep the riverbed clean. He is credited for resurrecting 160 km long river Kali Bein in Punjab.

Tree man: Daripalli Ramaiah

This year's Padma Shri award will also go to Nepal-based Anuradha Koirala, also known as 'Saviour Mother'. The 67-year-old Koirala is credited for rescuing and rehabilitating 12,000 sex trafficking victims and runs a rehabilitation home in Kathmandu and such transit homes along Indo-Nepal border towns.
      In medicine, the Padma Shri award this year goes posthumously to Dr Suniti Solomon of Tamil Nadu, diagnosed first AIDS case in India. She had to her credit the distinction of diagnosing first AIDS case in India in 1985.
      Dr Solomon had also established country's first AIDS Research Group and took up working on AIDS patients at a time when doctors stayed away from them due to stigma attached.
  Dr Subroto Das of Gujarat also gets the award in medicine category for being 'Highway Messiah' and is credited for providing immediate medical help to road accident victims on India's Highways.
      In the same category, Dr Bhakti Yadav, 91-year-old gynaecologist is known for delivering 1,000 babies and is also credited for treating patients free for the past 68 years.
      The government announcement said in the social work category Girish Bharadwaj of Karnataka would get the honour for building more than 100 low cost and eco-friendly suspension bridges connecting remote villages across India.

ends

Emergence of 'The American Modi' :Is the World ready for Donald Trump?

Crisis is sometime a bitter pill – a necessity, often essential for reforms. So in such cases anyone who contributes to crisis also contributes for the success of reforms.

Well, creating a prelude to the following article is not without good reason.  The unthinkable has happened and Donald Trump is the new President of the United States of America. Trump's election was greeted with concern by many countries around the world, in part because of the potential for an isolationist foreign policy. This is predictable part of the story. Let us examine the other view too.

There is a Tolstoyan perspective of history that prescribes that individuals may be  irrelevant and in effect only circumstances create events. Taking a leap from these theories we ought to examine the issues flagged off by former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

'Desi Trump and American Modi'

Harper was in New Delhi for the hyped Second Raisina Dialogue. His talk was informative and well analysed. There is a growing need of realisation that too much of negativism against a leader or a particular political system can often boomerang and result in immense support base for such a system, former Canadian Prime Minister has said referring to the triumph of Donald Trump in the US elections or the exit of Britain from the European Union could be attributed to this.

      "...May be they (Trump's election victory and exit of Britain from EU) happened because they were condemned by all. Does that sound strange?," Mr Harper asked.

This is precisely here I have an answer to offer. Rather my answer is illustrative. It is the case of the rise of the Moditva phenomenon in Indian politics – where the know all and intellectuals unhesitatingly had dumped Narendra Modi lock, stock, and barrel.  

Here actually comes the diagnosis of Stephen Harper: Negativism and underestimating by rivals actally led to Trump victory as also another unthinkable episode of circa 2016 – the exit of Britain from the European Union.

In this context, I tend to endorse the argument placed forward by Harper, one of the longest serving Prime Ministers of Canada.

Harper said unlike in the past, when 'newspapers' or news bulletins on radio and TV were sole source of information, the game has changed with the emergence of social networking as powerful tools. "Moreover, information is getting tailored to your choice now," he said. He further explained information flow is not one sided -- people can participate in a news event instantly. 

"With modern technology, people who disagree with consensus now get their own information, develop own views, and define their own interests - who feel the same ultimately support leadership from outside the system," he remarked.  

As a result, he said, "Virtually everyone is being politicised now and they are getting politicised in their own terms". It is here lies the relevance on the need to understand the 'politics of Hindus' vis-a-vis social networking in India. This is an emerging trend and it is trending strongly.

Harper: Razor Sharp Analysis

My take is simple: Don’t we agree with him vis-à-vis emergence of Narendra Modi? Was Modi not dismissed as a ‘communal’ Hindu Gujarati – who will never be acceptable to the “people (self-styled read broad minded secularists of India”? 

Have not we heard: India is no Gujarat?

Hence, may be Modi is 'Modi of today' - the Prime Minister of world's largest democracy --- because he was condemned by all? Indian intellectuals, NGO activists - may be thought - everyone else is stupid?

Harper was of the view that though significant enough, such major drastic happenings had happened in the past also. On this he referred to the breaking up of the Soviet Union and claimed that many years back a Polish communist leader, who disapproved the Soviet variety of communism, had predicted that things would go chaotic in the erstwhile communist empire (Soviet Union). Harper cautioned that all these - globally significant incidents - happened because the world was perhaps not willing to prepare itself for such outcome. "I believe this problem is going to get worse because we are not prepared well to respond," said Harper. Harper also diagnosed that Trump's victory was a testimony to the fact that he took up issues like 'immigration' as it concerned the people of America. 

I have referred this earlier also and again bringing in here. I was interviewed by a popular website Matters India on the day Modi was elected Prime Minister by Indian voters – May 16, 2014. To a question on secularism and minority appeasement from senior scribe Jose Kavi, I had said, “The Indian ‘secularism’ propagated by the Congress and Left and even parties of Mulayam Singh and Mamata Banerjee is also a Fundamentalism. They divide people. Muslims get 5 per cent job quota, bigger amount of scholarship. Then, will it be wrong if his Hindu classmate hates the Muslim boy? 

"Our good friend, Mobarak Haider, a liberal Pakistani writer, says the Congress and the Left pampered the pathological Muslim narcissism, making Muslims more of a minority”. (Extract from interview with Matters India: (www.matterindia.com)

 

My contention has been there is little to dispute that if we cherish democracy, the public perception is important. Thus, as the Prime Minister – Modi needs to convince and carry along his people. In Indian context, the onus is on him as expectations too are from him as the Mandate 2014 suggested. The mandate of 2014 somehow had nothing or less to do with the 'Hindutva agenda' of the RSS even as a large number of Sadhus were deployed during electioneering in 2014.

Akhilesh battle with dad Mulayam signals shift in socialist politics

In 2012, when Akhilesh Yadav  declined to play a 'papa's boy' and repeatedly addressed his aging father as ''Netaji (our ultimate leader),'' little did any political pundit predict that  a seemingly amiable son will humble his father in a fierce political tussle -- snatching from former UP strongman, his party and the symbol bicycle.

Just as today -- post the Election Commission verdict, giving his faction the recognition of being the genuine Samajwadi Party has set the tone for key contests in UP -- many say they could see the changes coming in the party affairs as more than fighting his father Mulayam Singh Yadav-Akhilesh was more keen to reform SP from its traditional Hindi-heartland socialistic values.
  
In this context, says former Samajwadi MP Shailendra Kumar -- "behind a soft exterior, Akhilesh is a tough mettle  and in between 2009 and 2012 -- as the president of UP unit of Samajwadi -- he had implemented several key decisions". 

Brushing aside the senior Yadav's moves, Akhilesh had opposed induction of Western UP strongman and history-sheeter DP Yadav, forced the 'Netaji' (his father) to remove veteran Mohan Singh as the spokesman for backing DP Yadav's entry.
 In fact, as the UP unit president of the party, showing firmness during his battle for 2012, Akhilesh  gave unto himself the larger say in the running of the party, selecting candidates and also drawing the campaign graph.
He also had forced the party – still drunk with old socialistic stance – to shed the past prejudices and led Samajwadi turn 'modern' and pledged English education and computerisation and announced distribution of laptops and computers in the 2012 election manifesto.
  Akhilesh camp says, with the look of a next door youth and quite an infectious smile, Akhilesh Yadav started representing a paradigm shift in North India’s politics, which for long rested on caste, religion and also violence.
  His best trump card thus and not without good reason -- and that distinguished him from his rival-uncle Shivpal Yadav -- has been humility -- but ear-on-ground approach.
  Perhaps this difference in style and substance distanced Lucknow's 'neo-Chhote Nawab' from his father at least in political realism and endeared himself to his other uncle and new find mentor Ram Gopal Yadav. Thus, party sources say while defeat in a legal battle before the Election Commission was an humiliation and embarrassment for Mulayam, the long-run family feud also has ensured emergence of a new crafty socialist in the form of Ram Gopal Yadav, in the corridors of power.

Samajwadi Party watchers consider Ram Gopal Yadav as a silent player, who sticks to his own script and seldom interacts with the media. "The Rajya Sabha MP (Ram Gopal) once readily played second fiddle to Mulayam's confidant Amar Singh, but he has been always firm about his own views and when time came, he teamed up with veteran socialists Mohan Singh and Rewati Raman Singh to oust Amar Singh," says a CPI leader.

 Meanwhile, those who know Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav say in the changed scenario a hardcore political entity that he is, former UP Chief Minister and an ex-Defence Minister may still try to fight out.
 In the past, Mulayam has played a number of key political games, wrestling his position well. Mulayam's associate and a senior Janata Dal (U) leader pointed out: "In 1999, Mulayam stunned non-BJP forces when he virtually single-handedly stalled Sonia Gandhi's march to the PMO, when he categorically declined to support a Congress-led Government after Jayalalitha withdrew support to the Vajpayee Government". 

Again in 2002, he was instrumental in ensuring APJ Abdul Kalam's election as the President, when he was reported to have stuck a deal with the BJP.
  In 2008 again, Mulayam had chipped in to bail out Dr Manmohan Singh regime, when the Left parties had withdrawn support to UPA-I, over the Indo-US Nuclear deal.

Assembly Elections: Acid test to Narendra Modi's popularity, Demonetisation drive

While Narendra Modi's home state of Gujarat is more often called a Hindu laboratory, the perceived Hindu-Muslim polarization is not confined to this western Indian state only. Uttar Pradesh, which goes to the polls in seven phases in February and March, has actually witnessed more Hindu-Muslim clashes than Gujarat, both in the pre-independence era and also in contemporary settings.

 

With the stage set for elections in five Indian states including the bellwether Uttar Pradesh, the love-hate relationship that frames India's religious communities is bound to figure in political discourse once again.
The elections — scheduled over the next two months — will also predict the political future of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his pro-Hindu Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which came to power two years ago riding on a wave of anti-Muslim rhetoric, along with the "neo development model." 

Even a substantial number of Muslims are reported to have voted for Modi in 2014 especially in Gujarat, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Much of the politically-linked temple campaigns aiming to undo "Muslim rulers' destruction of Hindu temples" revolved around temples in that state and that helped propel the BJP to the mainstream.
The same Hindu-Muslim disunity factor would also come into the political debate in the state of Uttarakhand where so-called ‘Muslim appeasement' by the BJP's rival, Indian National Congress has already made news in the run up to the polls.
The Congress-led state government's decision to give "special noon breaks" to Muslims to perform Friday prayers has provoked angry reactions from the BJP. "What if the Hindu community says they need a two-hour break on Monday for Shiv puja, on Tuesday for Hanumanji and on Sunday for the Sun God?" BJP spokesperson Nalin Kohli said.

The state that witnessed devastating floods in 2013 is also famous for Hindu pilgrimages and shrines. How these issues will influence polls - however- remains to be seen.

Amidst these debates, many political watchers are taking an overall caustic view of the Hindu-Muslim relationship. "The Hindu-Muslim permutation and combination in politics as seen in the last 20 years often sparks off rows about whether the two communities have been nurtured by a single civilization or two distinctly different civilizations," says Kolkata-based educationist, Chiranjeet Shanyal.
While all eyes will be on the Uttar Pradesh polls, as this happens to be India's most populous state, the issues concerning other minorities, like Sikhs, will be in play in the northern state of Punjab where Sikh followers are a majority.

For Christians, the electoral games will be crucial in the states of Goa and Manipur. The Christian community in Goa has been curiously sharing a love-hate relationship with the BJP for different reasons at different times and in different situations. In Goa, just as in Manipur, an interesting political campaign remains to unfold.

The BJP is banking on the support of local Meitei Hindus for its fortunes in Manipur that borders Myanmar. The rival Congress has a strong Meitei leader in the form of incumbent Chief Minister O. Ibobi Singh, who is known for his crafty moves to get Meitei Hindu voters to favor him.

The state also has a substantial Naga tribe, most of them Christians, who are largely perceived to be soft towards the BJP. 

"The Nagas could be inclined to support the BJP or its ally, the Naga People's Front primarily because the Modi government has entered into an agreement with The National Socialist Council of Nagaland. Moreover, Ibobi Singh of Congress has relentlessly pursued anti-Naga policies during the last decade," said L. Siro from the United Naga Council.
Ibobi Singh has created new administrative districts to reach out to another section of the Christian population in Manipur: the Kukis. The division of Christian voters could spoil Modi's ambitions in Manipur.
In Goa, the BJP won the support of Christians in 2012, helping them ultimately to provide six Christian legislators. They even have a Christian as the deputy chief minister: Francis D'Souza.

"I was asked if there can be a Christian chief minister for Goa in the future. I said it is possible," D'Souza told a press conference in Panaji.

But it is a fact that the BJP has lost the good will of Goan Christians for several reasons, including reported attacks on churches in various parts of India after the Modi government took power in Delhi.

"In Goa, the people and Christians in particular saw the BJP as a viable alternative in 2012. But 2017 will be different," says Manish Tewari, Congress leader.

In a democracy, the election process throws up opportunities for sizing up the polity. It does a reality check. The parameters of this check will differ greatly in each state's vote. But these are first acid tests for the popularity of Modi's programs and policies.

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