If it can defeat Mamata Banerjee and wrest power in West Bengal; the BJP will emerge almost as an Unstoppable political force in the sub-continent.
In 2021 also the situation was almost similar. It was then 'defeated' by a strong-rooted regional party, that is the Trinamool Congress.
"People had enough. People are oppressed and repressed. They want change."
How is the political pendulum now swinging in 2026 ?
What are the issues at stakes?
Firstly, the West Bengal poll outcome either way - either in favaour of the TMC or the BJP -- will be in the ultimate analysis decided not by one or two factors. It will be decided by a combination of longstanding local factors, financial or economic factors -
** which is essentially at all three levels - global, national (Modi Govt's performance)
*** and local - that is provincial and based on Mamata's delivery.
If the BJP wins Bengal, immediate statement would be that the mandate have been "spun" as validation of Modi's performance vis-s-vis leading Double Engine governments in states where the Lotus party either has a chief minister or has its coalition partner(s) such as TDP or JD-U in power.
On the other hand, PM Naredndra Modi’s failure to seize Bengal will be seen in part as failures of pro-Hindutva over-zealous nationalistic politics in a province that believes in cultural autonomy and wants to hold on to its linguistic and habitual (food) pride.
These have been so important that even Maccher Jhol or BJP's fascination for vegetarian dishes are now election issues.
If Mamata wins, if will be her fourth term return to power. The first was in 2011 and then in 2016 and 2021.
For chief ministership, Narendra Modi himself won thrice - 2002, 2007 and 2012. In 2014 - of course, Modi came to national polity as the Prime Minister.
His party has won two subsequent elections in Gujarat - 2017 and 2022. Once under chief minister Late Vijay Rupani and second time under Bhupendra Patel, also the incumbent CM.
From amongst BJP leaders; Shivraj Singh Chouhan had won twice - 2008 and 2013 and failed in 2018.
But in 2023 while the BJP won in Madhya Pradesh; Shivraj has been replaced as the chief minister. Hence, if TMC returns; Mamata's stakes will certainly go up the ladder in national politics.
Will she emerge as a challenger to Rahul Gandhi's position as an anchor man for opposition unity will have to be seen ?
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| Communist supporters are still there in some parts of West Bengal |
Multiple factors have shaped the politics of Bengal and also can now help explain the fate of a maverick TMC supremo.
- Sort of conviction that last 15 years saw Misgovernance and lawlessness. The economic decline of West Bengal has been exemplary while other states including Odisha and even Assam in north east beyond river Brahmaputra have come up the ladder.
- The emergence of a 'genuine' alternative in BJP. Marginalisation of Communists and Congress - the 'evils' of both describe the epitome of Trinamool politics.
- The corruption and incompetence embedded over 'unchallenged' Tolabaji
- A largely 'unreconstructed ideological language' that makes aspirational younger Bengalis to flee home state.
- No more tricks of a demagogue who had over the years 'cleverly exploited' the weakness of the emotional voters to position herself for power.
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| Mamata's trusted aide Partha Chatterjee being taken into custody in 2022 |
Partha Chatterjee, once second in command in Trinamool Congress and a former Education Minister, was arrested by the ED in July 2022 following the seizure of over Rs 50 crore in cash and gold from properties linked to his close aide, Arpita Mukherjee.
The raids were part of an investigation into a teacher recruitment scam.
The scale of fraud by TMC was unmatched. In April 2025, the Supreme Court upheld the Calcutta High Court's decision to cancel the appointments of approximately 25,753 staff members from the 2016 recruitment panel.
"Tainted beyond Repair": The courts ruled that the entire selection process was "vitiated by fraud," involving manipulated OMR sheets, rank-jumping, and appointments for candidates who submitted blank answer scripts.
The end of Left era
The end of communism in 2011 marked a paradigm shift.
The Marxist historian Eric Hobsbawm had said around 2011 that the collapse of the Left forces in West Bengal was one of the developments that had surprised him most in recent years.
There were hasty 'rebuttal's from the CPI-M leadership in Delhi and in Kolkata. The communists have survived in Kerala but it practically vanished in West Bengal and also got marginalised in Tripura - with a substantial tribal and Christian population.
Now that focus has moved to the TMC. Will it meet the fate of the communists or the Congress - which last lasted power in West Bengal only in the 1970s.
Analyst Ramakanto Shanyal says: "If you say TMC is nervous; I may have to agree. Mamata Banerjee almost lost her sense of reading people's pulse. It appears, they know they are going to lose but what is important is how they fight.
Unfortunately, the TMC is fighting almost taking a wrong path highlighting wrong issues. Freebies like Lalkhir Bhandar, she is banking.
If they want continuity for the sake of it; people may no longer be impressed".
In North Bengal, a Christian pastor says - "Politics has changed a lot. The BJP knows where they can hurt the Trinamool and its leader the most... The Muslim support base. That's a reality. On the other hand Mamata Banerjee seems no longer knows which buttons to press".
His refrain is based on ground zero analysis.
Several 'bedrocks' of TMC support have grown disillusioned by broken promises of development and failures of government apparatus.
Others may agree with this refrain; but some also say even if BJP comes to power; effective governance will be a highly challenging task.
The Lotus party may need a leader of Yogi Adityanath's guts and Narendra Modi's political acumen. Suvendu Adhikari does not really fit that bill.
ends
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