Kerala Consolation prize may play 'immense face-saver' for a maestro of Election Defeat - Rahul Gandhi ::::: LDF and NDA votes can be easily identified, but Congress or UDF votes are more or less invisible !!

The post mortem has started. In Kerala, analysts and even political supporters including a few hardcore LDF voters say there was a pro-Congress-led UDF wave. 

It is said the minorities trust that Congress-led UDF will ensure their safety.

But 'minority consolidation' is ruled out. There would not be Hindu consolidation because NDA is also an emerging force.

Many say people across various sections of population see the UDF as a 'reliable' force.

And there were reasons for it because the 10-year anti-incumbency is pretty strong wave in the southern state. Had Congress played its cards well, they would have been in power in 2021 itself.

But Marxist doyen Pinarayi Vijayan played his cards better and had managed almost a Hindu resurgence in his favour. But 2026, he faced the anti-incumbency. Even pro-Left experts and journalists say projecting a younger chief ministerial face would have been a better bet. 

 
"Pinarayi Vijayan should have been changed; Youths are needed more than an old man," went a powerful social media positing summing the virtual end game for the CPI-M-led LDF.

But Vijayan has still shown the tough nuts he is made of. Winning a repeat election is always a difficult idea in Kerala. Vijayan had done that in 2021 despite Covid19. The LDF had made a ground-breaking victory in 2021 with 95+ seats,

Needless to add, in 2026 the pressure and pulls that Vijayan faced became all too evident even months before the polls. Insiders say apparently there was a lot of haggling and hard bargaining over whether 'new faces' should have been brought in many constituencies. 

This year the communists and even supporters might have missed the then CPI-M general secretary Sitaram Yechuri, who in 2021 after the vote count had said: 

“This result shows people’s faith in this (Vijayan) government and the Left. This is a victory safeguarding the constitutional mandate for secularism and democracy".

The debate is bigger with regard to possible defeat.   

The anti-Left forces will certainly mock the 'Communist-mukt India' as the Leftists have already been voted out in their erstwhile fiefdoms West Bengal and Tripura.   

But a well known political hypocrisy will be visible as the Congress and the communists will try to do 'their usual national building exercises' in Delhi.

Blogger and Backwaters of "Mallu land' (as say my journalist friends) 

Onno Mallu? Are you Malayali ? ... 

Let's change the question; are you communist ?

The second part of the question is relevant as spin masters are already at job. 

"The CPI-M-led LDF believes that the entire minority votes (Christians and Muslims) did not go to the UDF," said LDF Convener T P Ramakrishnan.

As he keeps hopes; let us keep our fingers crossed.  

Astrologers, palmists and sundry other fortune tellers too may be back in business. See what the analysts and other crystal gazers have to say -- 

In 2016, the voting percentage went up to 77.35 (from around 75 in 2011) . But contrary to the argument that higher voter turnout favoured the Congress and IUML; it was the Left that made gains.

This was when Pinarayi Vijayan became chief minister for the first time with 91 seats for the LDF.

In 2021, there was a dip in poll percentage – 76% – and the Pinarayi-led LDF ended up the beneficiary, winning 99 seats.

Prior to that about two decades back, in 2001, under A K Antony's leadership, the UDF came to power in 2001 after the Congress-led alliance recorded a massive victory with 99 seats. 

Five years later in 2006; the V S Achuthanandan-led LDF repeated an almost similar victory having managed to win 98 seats. On both occasions, the voter turnout hovered around 72%–72.47 in 2001 and 72.38 in 2006. 

The 2011 polls recorded a rise in poll percentage. The Oommen Chandy-led UDF stormed to power with a wafer-thin margin after winning 72 seats. The voting percentage was above 75.

This time there was higher voters' turnout. A higher voter turnout is likely to  favour the Congress-led UDF.

However, the Left leaders argue that in Kerala multiple factors work and hence this pattern has undergone changes. 

Moreover, this was first election after Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls and hence it could be still a difficult proposition to draw any conclusion.  

62-year-old Silvester casts his vote at the Pachakkanam booth in Idukki (The Hindu)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

With a third player in the picture (BJP) now, the usual patterns cannot always be deemed true.

“In the past, heavy polling used to favour us; but it doesn’t hold true now. We believe an anti-Pinarayi wave has reflected in this election. It could be the reason for the heavy polling, though it’s an assumption," said a Congress leader.

"We believe even CPI-M cadres have voted for us, as they feel a change is necessary for the party to survive in the state,” he maintained.

On the other side, the CPI-M vouches that all its votes have been polled. 

Unlike in the last Lok Sabhe polls, where the party failed to gauge cadre sentiment, this time the party machinery efficiently worked to ensure that there was no lapse from their side.

It is presumed that the LDF and NDA votes can be easily identified, the Congress or UDF votes are more or less invisible.  

Assam saw 85% Voter Turnout, Kerala recorded nearly 78%, 

Puducherry 90%  

Expressing confidence over UDF's comeback, IUML leader Sayyid Munavvar Ali Shihab Thangal asserted that even though the party deserves the deputy chief minister's post, it will not stake a claim or negotiate over it.

IUML leader Sayyid Sadiq Ali Shihab Thangal