Updated ::: What about Muivah meeting with "UNLF chief" R K Meghen ? :: :: Can they give a new sense of purpose to Tangkhuls and Meities ? :::::::: GOOD OPTICS :::: Bangladesh Army Chief Gen Zaman is "drawing parallels" with what happened to Pakistan in 1980s

Do you want another war ?

 The biggest challenge about writing on insurgency and chiefly the insurgent leaders of north east -- the militants and former militants as we tag them often - is to avoid being alarmist. 

It is important at the same time not to appear as propagandist either for the 'militancy' as a concept or some militant groups or even for Govt of India and the Indian army. 

These are easier said 'virtues' or goals. 

I had at times discussed on these aspects of 'reporting' with veterans like Khushwant Singh and Kuldip Nayar separately. To my surprise - during one of my first interaction with legendary Khushwant - when I interviewed him for PTI Golden Jubilee Souvenir (1998) he had raised the issue on his own. 

One lesson I drew from them has been that one should always lay emphasis on the "sense" of right and wrongs. And if possible - use these in harness with empathy. 

I did not report or write much on United National Liberation Front (UNLF) of Manipur. But on NSCN-IM and other Naga factions - I have been writing quite both pre and post 1997. 

My studies on the birth and growth of Naga insurgency have revealed that even New Delhi's mishandling of the situations has led to the situations we are in today. 

The very concept of 'extremism' (or freedom movement) often provide (or provided) purpose to young men -- with of course certain narratives not defined well. 

These days everyone is talking about NSCN-IM leader Thuingaleng Muivah's forthcoming visit to Somdal village in Manipur. On the backdrop comes another story of 'homecoming' of UNLF chief R K Meghen in 2019.

Muivah younger days

Meghen was arrested in Bangladesh in 2010 and later handed over to Indian authorities. 

In 2016, a special National Investigation Agency (NIA) court sentenced him to 10 years in prison for "waging war" against India and other offenses under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA). He would be still behind bars in a Guwahati jail. 

But he was released in November 2019 after his sentence was commuted for good behavior. Of course in around 2020; the UNLF split into two factions the UNLF (Koireng) led by R.K. Achou Singh and the UNLF (Pambei) led by Khundongbam Pambei.

Meghen : Once upon a time 

On May 22, 1990, the UNLF, along with other insurgent groups operating in the Northeast – the National Socialist Council of Nagaland – Khaplang (NSCN-K), the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), and the Kuki National Army (KNA) – floated a pan-Mongoloid coalition called the Indo-Burma Revolutionary Front (IBRF).

Those were much turbulent days of north east region. Assam saw the worst of the time and in Nagaland - targeted killings, threat letters and also clashes between various factions left havoc like ground zero often.

In Nagaland, Mokokchung town "burned" once and even SP was murdered in 1994. 

The IBRF was floated to wage a "united struggle for the independence of Indo-Burma". The UNLF had training camps in Myanmar and Bangladesh. 

       Aftermath of Dec 27, 1994 violence in Mokokchung :: snap - Morung Express

That way taking the discussions further one could say Muivah and R K Meghen are well known to each other.

In Delhi, one retired military officer commented in a lighter vein: "Yes; both are friends and now that Muivah will be in Manipur .... both he and Meghen should meet".   

I would not have bothered much about such remarks often said casually over a glass of wine. But the 'journalistic mischief germ' was doing its job in my mind. 

For a pause ... I thought : Muivah is 91 and Meghen (born 1944) is 81.

Both have seen the two states, the people and the northeast of India from a different prism. They have the transitions in Myanmar and also in China and Bangladesh. 

Both had 'dreams' and more importantly planted huge dreams in people's mind. As a consequent of that people from both communities and in two states of Manipur and Nagaland made sacrifices and youths joined the multiple underground factions when most of them could have had good and settled careers with some other vocations.

"It is worth knowing what is crossing their minds today ... as both are well aware of the contemporary realities," -- the journo in me added that mysterious spice. 

I would have probably still avoided talking further. But I also thought how would things turn out if some social workers belonging to Meiteis and Tangkhul Nagas arrange a courtesy call type meeting between the two. 

My idea would make deep sense especially because when the crises of 2023 enveloped Manipur - NSCN-IM leaders and other Nagas of Manipur preferred to take the line that both these ethnic groups are 'brothers'. They are indigenous people sharing 'brotherhood' from time immemorial as is often stated. 

Both Nagas and Meiteis - despite crystal clear ethnic and also religious differences wanted 'independence' and at times they 'fought' against New Delhi and Indian army together. 

There were other elements too. 

Meiteis ranging from Meghen, his other colleagues in militancy in various militant groups to 'nationalist' leaders such as Rishang Keishing (a Tangkhul Naga) and also O Ibobi Singh or N Biren Singh (angry old man of 2025) wanted a 'united' Manipur.

Muivah and others in contrast wanted a divided Manipur in the name of 'greater Nagalim'.  But intellectual shyness greeted me for the last few days. 

I also avoided talking about these with my 'friends' in Delhi. But I spoke to a few Neta type individuals in Kohima and Imphal. The general reaction being : mild laughter !!

A Netflix series - 'The woman in the window' came helpful as I was trying to fight insomnia as my daughter was in her mom's arms and the latter snoring sweetly in a Marxist style from the hills of Tripura.   

The series had a protagonist saying - "Curiosity is the evidence of a decreased depression pattern". And my night was done !!

I pulled my laptop. This 'curiosity' drove me to wonder -- what's crossing the minds of militant leaders Muivah and Meghen in the contemporary setting. And mischievously again - what would be a fictional or imaginative Somdal declaration.

What could be a 'joint message' to the people of Manipur, to Meiteis and Nagas of Manipur if the two leaders were to meet at Somdal or some other place? 

Honestly; both Nagas and Meiteis these days lack moral clarity. There are other vices and they are virtually going towards a common downfall.

So; what message will these two leaders give ? Can the communities get a new direction and a much importantly, a new sense of purpose ?

ends 

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As we promised in this series 'Good Optics' -- we will deal with matters -- that no one is mentioning or talking or discussing so openly.

- happy reading 

Bangladesh Army Chief Gen Zaman is "drawing parallels" with what happened to Pakistan in the 1980s

(Myanmar's nationals and Border Guard Police (BGP) personnel, who crossed the Bangladesh-Myanmar border to seek shelter in Bangladesh, being escorted back at Cox's Bazar.

- snap Hindustan Times )

New Delhi 

Strategic autonomy is often described as the ability of a nation to pursue its own national interest and preferred foreign policy without being constrained by other countries.

It can be argued that India has pursued the policy of strategic autonomy ever since its independence during the bipolar cold war (1947-1991), unipolar times (1991-2008) and now in the multi-polar era.

But by 2025 things are changing fast and may change further. In the South Asian context of course, the India-Pakistan conflict is there for everyone to see and debate.

General Abhay Krishna

But what is a new emerging situation and context is now Bangladesh.

"The Rakhine Corridor is quietly turning into one of the most consequential geopolitical flashpoints in our region right now. 

It’s being pitched as a humanitarian lifeline to northern Rakhine, which is now largely under the control of the Arakan Army. But behind the smokescreen of aid, what’s really at stake is strategic access and a looming great power contest between the US and China, with Bangladesh caught squarely in the middle," says Lt Gen Abhay Krishna (Retd).

Of course, the Americans are pushing for the corridor under humanitarian pretexts. 

I posed him a few questions on the matter.

A keen observer of strategic things having served as Army Commander of three regions Eastern Command, South Western Command and Central Command, General Krishna says:

"Obviously the US is securing influence and possibly even a semi-permanent presence near the Bay of Bengal. Muhammad Yunus, heading the interim civilian government in Bangladesh, has signalled openness to the corridor under Western pressure, but this has put him at odds with the Bangladesh Army, particularly General Waqar-uz-Zaman".

The typical interesting part of Gen Krishna's analysis is that:

"Gen Zaman sees through it. He’s drawing parallels with what happened to Pakistan in the 1980s when, under the guise of fighting the Soviets, the country became a staging ground for foreign interests. The result was long-term instability, foreign interference and blowback that reshaped Pakistan’s politics forever."

We may understand that way Gen Zaman is showing "maturity" and he doesn’t want Bangladesh to be the "next lab rat".

Zaman says he is opposed to the "bloody corridor" and he has started calling for elections by December 2025.

This disturbs the power equilibrium signalling Bangladesh army's discomfort with the current interim civilian arrangement. This may obviously bring us to legitimate queries - how should India react and how is China reacting.

Lt Gen Abhay Krishna (retd) sums up the paradox quite well.

"On the Rakhine corridor issue, New Delhi may actually find itself in silent alignment with Beijing. This is a case of diplomatic billiards. Supporting Waqar Zaman’s resistance to the corridor, even informally, helps India in more ways than one," he says.

I asked him to elaborate things further and he maintained:

"It keeps Bangladesh in check, prevents a US beachhead and may even open the door for India to engage directly with groups like the Arakan Army or the Chin rebels".

He has a point. The engagement with Arakans is perhaps already happening quietly in Mizoram.

It is understood that New Delhi has built goodwill by offering non-lethal support and diplomacy rather than taking sides in the broader Myanmar conflict.

On Arjuna's dilemma to fight his own cousins and other near and dear ones, External Affairs Minister Dr Jaishankar once said it was like 'strategic constraints' as often discussed in the contemporary setting.

Why are we referring to this?

This is only to underline that predicaments often would haunt in geo-strategic thinking.

Indian army at job : Modern machines for modern war 

Quoting Lt Gen Abhay Krishna (retd) may be relevant yet again.

"The Rakhine Corridor is in effect far more than a simple humanitarian channel. 

It’s now a test case for how new proxy conflicts could play out in South Asia with humanitarianism as the cover and strategic encirclement as the real game".

Bangladesh’s military is trying to avoid walking straight into a trap and smartly so.

What should India do notwithstanding the fact India is part of the Quad - that also has Japan, Australia and more importantly the United States.

Well, if we go by Lt Gen Krishna's viewpoint.

"The Govt of India may find that its interests are best served by staying out of the American orbit on this one."

But during the course of interaction, the former military commander also pointed out a few things which we often tend to ignore.

"Please keep it in mind that the US isn’t working in a vacuum. China, which backs the Myanmar junta and maintains ties with various ethnic groups including the Arakan Army is watching this corridor idea with deep suspicion".

Importantly, for Beijing, the Rakhine corridor represents a direct challenge to its strategic depth in Myanmar and the region.

"If US gains a foothold in northern Rakhine via Bangladesh, it changes the calculus for both China and India," says the former Army Commander and a keen follower of unfolding geo-politics and security scenario.

He further explains:

"This is where things get even more interesting. India, on paper, should be aligned with the US. But in practice, Delhi shares China’s apprehensions about the corridor. India has major stakes in the Kaladan project. It needs southern Rakhine to stay stable and doesn’t want the Americans getting too close to its northeast."

There is yet another angle and that's something the Americans are trying to tell Dhaka - this corridor would also elevate Bangladesh’s strategic clout at a time when India or even China want to quietly "box it in".

Often in the past, global crises such as Russia-Ukraine conflict had provided a bunch of  neo opportunities to Indian diplomacy to shape a totally new road map for itself - where it will highlight its own vision and need not side blindly either democracies of the American’s school or the strong and steady leadership of Russia.

"Rising sea levels, cyclones and resultant dwindling farmlands have over the years pushed over a crore of Bangladeshis towards Indian shores. The bigger challenge is that this 'humanitarian tragedy is being very cleverly weaponised," says the General.

He also adds: "Extremist networks, like Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) have been exploiting the riverine Sundarbans, embedding sleeper cells. and smuggling arms under the guise of migration.We, therefore, need to be proactive to prevail over these developments.”

India needs to be more than just cautious. 

ends