Rahul, Modi-fied India and Nagaland
"Responsible parliamentary conduct is expected from Rahul Gandhi who is a senior leader. His disrespect to the OBCs is unfortunate. He should adhere to the Honourable Court’s judgement." - says Nagaland CM and NDPP leader Neiphiu Rio
New Delhi
“Public kya dekh nahin rahi kya ho raha hai?… Ankhe kholiye (Can’t the people see what’s happening around. Open your eyes)," - screamed Priyanka Gandhi. Indira Gandhi's grand daughter has been smart enough to realise that Indian public is not yet convinced that disqualification of Rahul Gandhi is a threat to democracy in the country.
P Chidambaram also admitted the absence of people's support to sympathise with Rahul Gandhi. "...The public has not come out to protest in past several years," he maintained sheepishly.
For a change, there is immense curiosity in Nagaland these days on what will happen to Indian politics in 2024 because Naga Netas, other stakeholders and common people have to prepare themselves on how to sneeze as the state loves to do so in the spirit and style Delhi freezes. There are a few more reasons all the more as I have started receiving tele calls from Naga leaders and sociologists on how would the Modi-Rahul Gandhi battle ultimately turn out.
One common response I have given to friends and some seasoned leaders is please do not trust what English newspapers say or what generally one get to listen to the arguments put forward by some English TV news channels. Without dwelling much on media, I will simply say in 2014, 2019 and even 2022 (assembly polls in UP), the English media have generally failed on all accounts.
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Now the political crux of the debate. Democracies are supposed to encompass consultative processes and English media have generally sought to dismiss and write off the immense political potentials of Narendra Modi and his brand equity. They are thus easily dismissed by the Prime Minister as part of the 'ecosystem' and this tagging is not without good reasons.
In 2002 during the height of riots in Gujarat, I had told friends that Modi will be a key player in national politics. I did not depend on any astrology or palmistry to say so. My only solid ground for having said so was because Modi was doing the politics of majority. And Hindutva suits Hindu mindset definitely.
If one combines Modi's macho image vide strong leadership with appeal of a development catalyst, the Moditva phenomenon is just lethal. It was lethal between 2002 and 2012 in Gujarat and it brought in electoral dividends in 2014, 2019 and also 2022 and even 2023 in Nagaland and Tripura. Meghalaya was technically an upset to this argument though NPP Chief Minister Conrad Sangma cleverly did not attack Modi during his campaign.
All these factors offering Modi as a catalyst of development and in the case of Nagaland a 'man with decisiveness and determination' translated into votes. Even in wildest of dreams Neiphiu Rio will ever presume that his party NDPP could have won 25 seats without that magical 20:40 formula.
If these have worked for Modi in the past, there is really no reason to believe that this will not work even in 2024. Of course, many Naga leaders and common citizens would like to see the return of old Congress days. More than the love for Rahul, such a feeling is generally triggered by self love. The Congress generally gives 'freedom' to certain things which the BJP does not allow so openly.
'Save Democracy' is too childish and theoretical campaign to win over the confidence of the 21st century Indian voters.
My skeptic friends and Nagaland watchers of course say -- only the party flag on rooftops and hilltops have changed and most of it look like the past. Well, some former Congressmen are now either in the BJP or in NDPP, an outfit of party hoppers. The problem lies with some Congress leaders and ex Congress leaders who still have abhorrence to BJP and its ideology.
Here comes the relevance of Rahul Gandhi and his disqualification. The day the Surat court order came, a regionalist (who was never in Congress) told me the BJP has done a blunder and made a hero out of Rahul Gandhi.
I am also aware that fighting BJP and Modi in 2024 will have to be done 'ideologically'; but there will be practical political necessity. The opposition parties have to unite and present a strong 'alternative' to rival Modi's myth and also mystique appeal.
Those who want to see return of the Congress into the centre stage of Indian politics will do well to appreciate that while Rahul Gandhi's bravado is often found jammed in a clueless journey, others among regional players just do not have a national appeal. There is so much confidence in the BJP camp on the 'Rahul factor' that Amit Shah has unhesitating stated that if Karnataka battles boils down to a contest between Rahul and Modi, the saffron party's task will become easier.
The political polarisation has already happened and the voters of India will have to make a clear choice between Modi or 'against Modi'. The middle path is shrinking very fast. But Rahul has failed to deliver in two consecutive polls in 2014 and 2019 and numerous state polls. Nowhere the Congress party can confidently say that they could win state polls either in Chhatisgarh, Rajasthan or Himachal Pradesh due to Rahul Gandhi factor.
In fact, in 2022 Himachal polls, Rahul had kept himself away and some observers have suggested that keeping him away has instead helped Congress to wrest power.
Wrap up
Importantly, Indian politics has changed a lot. Voters too have changed. If in Nagaland, we talk about money menace in terms of election outcome at the national level, the 'supporters' in political rallies these days also would not come with bus fare and a good food packet. And the fact of the matter is Congress is a resource-crunch party and on the other hand the BJP is not only world's greatest political organisation, it also has deep pockets.
Moreover, unlike 1970s when Janata party was extremely disunited or even Vajpayee-Advani days of 2004, when the BJP banked on false claims of India Shining; today's Lotus party is essentially an election machine.
Moreover, the core voters of BJP will stick to Modi and here even the RSS despite some reservations will be compelled to back Modi's leadership. The BJP strategists also believe that sympathising with Rahul will not last long as soon there will be a realisation that Rahul has been held convicted by a court of law.
The arrogance in Crown Prince is so much that he did not say sorry yet. Slowly, Indian voters will also buy the line that Rahul is only making a mockery of the law and the process of law. If 17-18 people could be jailed and disqualified under the same law, the Congress's argument that Rahul Gandhi should not have been disqualified will not have any takers. The Naga leaders will hence do well to remember that for his part a smart operator Conrad Sangma has also already flayed Rahul for taking the OBC community name.
Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio is also smart enough to have tweeted on this on March 25th itself.
ends
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