New Delhi, Jun 13 As the stage is set for a crucial all-party meeting convened by Governor
Keshari Nath Tripathi in Kolkata, the violent confrontation between Trinamool Congress and BJP
shows that the people of the state and politics itself has been 'polarised politically'.
The result is that now her party is 'facing difficulty' in terms of saving its own turf, especially after a large number of Trinamool workers and leaders in rural and block levels are "shifting" towards the saffron camp, they say.Senior Congress leader and former Union Minister Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury said on Wednesday: "Didi khub chalaki korey Bangali aar Obangali bibhajan korar chesta korchhey (Mamata Banerjee is gradually and cleverly leading the state politics for a division between Bengalis and non Bengalis)".His reference is to ongoing political one-upmanship between the Trinamool and the BJP.
Prior to him Somen Mitra, West Bengal Congress president, has said that the sheer "minority appeasement" of Mamata Banerjee has led to the rise of pro-Hindutva politics in the state helping BJP in the long run.
Such has been BJP's rise in the recent months and its 18 MPs' win in the parliamentary polls - that the party's 'well known weaknesses - poor organisational structure and absence of a state-level face' in the eastern state are no longer being discussed.Emboldened by the massive victory - just four short of Trinamool's tally of 22, the saffron party leaders both in the state and at the central level are now asserting that they will be able to overthrow the Trinamool Congress government 'even before' the 2021 assembly polls.The BJP leaders involved in party's functioning in West Bengal - known for Left-Marxism ideological base politics for decades - realise it well that things have changed.
"We will keep mounting pressure on Mamataji as she has shown being vulnerable to electoral setback. Our performance would not have been as good as it has turned out to be but for the shift of the traditional pro-Left voters who came to the BJP," said a senior party functionary.Leaders such as Arvind Menon, Kailash Vijayvargiya and Shiv Prakash were involved in campaigning and effective planning to bring about such a drastic turnaround in Bengal politics."Hard work and silent but result oriented works involving Sangh outfits have yielded initial success. Now we have to push it further. It will be erroneous to underestimate Mamata Banerjee although as various post poll surveys have still claimed over 62 -64 per cent of people said they were "satisfied" with the performance of the Mamata Banerjee," cautioned one BJP leader.
However, others say such studies may have faults also as some research by local media organisations have shown that nearly 42 per cent of the respondents preferred Narendra Modi to continue as Prime Minister.The BJP strategists also feel that the marginalisation of Left and Congress has only made the political contest in the state bipolar and hence - they say - "the intensity of political competition and search for relevance has sidelined ideological considerations".
The voters in Bengal may not need hardcore 'pro-Hindutva core issues' - like Cow protection or Ram temple and the simple fact that BJP can 'replace' Mamata Banerjee and provide protection to the voters, would simply help the saffron party's cause. However, lot of works still ought to be done. The BJP leadership has already set up five political zones - Kolkata, Uttar Banga, Navadeep region, Hooghly-Midnapore and Murshidabad- Birbhum-Bankura region, sources said.
Caste factors to dominate while drawing BJP's future roadmap in UP
New Delhi, Jun 12 BSP supremo Mayawati' s revival journey winning 10 Lok Sabha seats in parliamentary polls as against none in 2014 does offer some challenges to BJP.The 'Modi magic' might have been a strong force in Lok Sabha polls, but when it comes to day-to-day management of party affairs in country's most populous state of Uttar Pradesh, the BJP strategists are certainly to give weightage to socio-political factors before drawing up plans for organisational polls.
This indication was given by a section of the party a day before BJP national president Amit Shah meets senior leaders and office bearers on Thursday to kickstart the process of organisational polls, from booth to mandal, district and state level polls and at the central level for party positions.
"It will be six-month long drawn programme and can extend up to December and finally we could have a new president or continue with Amit Shahji by January 2020," a party source told UNI.
The party leaders have already held a series of meetings on forthcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana. A section of leaders have indicated that the party's Jammu and Kashmir unit too has to get going for assembly polls expected by the year end as hinted by the Election Commission.
Sources said caste equations would be certain in play to work out party's future roadmap in Uttar Pradesh - which has yet again reposed faith in the saffron party sending 62 MPs to the Lower House of Parliament.
The party leaders are also scanning various media analyses especially post-poll surveys including
the seemingly credible CSDS-Lokniti Survey that shows among other things that BJP's hold over Brahmins, Kurmis and Koeris, the lower Other Backward Classes (OBCs), Jats and Rajputs were responsible for the saffron success tale.
Importantly, the BJP leaders have taken note that despite perception about Mahagatbandhan's failure, it is a "bitter truth" that Mayawati-led BSP has made a come back winning 10 Lok Sabha seats as against zero in 2014.
In 2012, the BSP vote share in assembly polls was 25.91 per cent and seats tally had come down to 80 from 206 in 2007.
In 2017 assembly polls, BSP vote share had declined to 22.23 per cent and number of seats nosedived to a modest 19.
"From caste equations factor, the poll results need closer study in UP. In 2019, BSP's vote share
dropped marginally to 19.26 from 19.77 per cent as in 2014, but it won 10 Lok Sabha seats. So, it was Akhilesh Yadav who paid the price of coming together with its bitter foe (BSP)," a key party leader told UNI.
The source further said - Samajwadi's vote share dropped from 22.35 to 17.96 per cent and its seats number
remained same as five.
In terms of next assembly elections in UP in 2022, all these caste factors would come into play - more so because such an electoral fray will not be for 'electing Narendra Modi as Prime Minister'.
Giving reference to post poll surveys, sources said one factor that contributed to SP's debacle was
shift of Muslim support base towards Congress. "Apparently, 15-16 per cent of Muslim vote share was cornered by the Congress and some of it about 7-8 per cent also came to BJP," they claimed.
The BSP, according to BJP strategists, also benefited due to the fact that most urban seats between SP and Mayawati's outfit were contested by Akhilesh Yadav's party.
In this context, they point out parliamentary constituencies such as Varanasi, Lucknow, Ghaziabad and Kanpur - these are essentially BJP bastions.
"We need to draw out plans at the ground level because both SP and BSP have their own respective strengths. SP has strong preference amongst Muslims and Yadavs while Jatavs (among Dalits) have stuck to BSP," the BJP source said.
Akhilesh Yadav's SP remains the 'first choice' of Muslims until Congress "reinvents" itself and importantly, some Muslim voters went to BSP because of its friendship with Samajwadi.
Such minority voters were apparently reluctant in 2017 and 2014 because the Muslims also suspected Mayawati's "deal making ability" with the BJP.
"If BJP has to continue with its prominent position, we have to ensure that SP must not enlarge its popularity beyond the Yadavs and Muslims," the source pointed out.
On Thursday's meeting, Mr Shah and other leaders will fine tune plans to launch a new membership drive, appoint 'returning officers' etc to verify the membership and start internal election process.
BJP chief will also hold a meeting of party general secretaries on June 18 or 19 to finalise internal poll programmes to be conducted at the state level.
ends
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