A visibly happy Prime Minister Narendra Modi told party workers at the BJP headquarters in Delhi that his government has taken Delhi to the doorstep of the people of the North-East, ending their alienation from the seat of governance.
The BJP and its allies are already in power in 19 states across India and adding Tripura and Meghalaya will put NDA in the seat of power in 21 states. In Nagaland, the BJP was in power in alliance with regional party NPF.
Giving new contours to the political map of northeast India, the Saffron party demolished the communists' raj and stormed to power in Tripura while it looked set to form coalition governments in alliance with regional parties in Nagaland and Meghalaya too.
The BJP and its allies are already in power in 19 states across India and adding Tripura and Meghalaya will put NDA in the seat of power in 21 states. In Nagaland, the BJP was in power in alliance with regional party NPF. Dedicating the unprecedented victory of the BJP to the untiring efforts, toil and sacrifices of the party workers over the last one year in the CPI(M)-citadel of Tripura, Mr Modi said the people had reposed their faith and trust in the Lotus party through the ballot, braving the politics of intimidation and violence. The CPI(M) could win 16 seats in Tripura where it has ruled since 1978 barring a five-year period of Congress rule from 1988 to 1993.
But victories in northeast also means a lot for Modi-Amit Shah duo and hence it was not without good reason the BJP chief credited Prime Minister for the party victory. However, at the end of the day there are several issues those need to be looked into - on what really gave BJP the landslide victory. The party bagged an impressive two-thirds majority winning a historic verdict in its favour -- the 35 seat haul for itself and as many as eight (8) for its ally Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT).
Of various strategies applied by BJP to unseat the Marxists in their renowned 'red fortress' Tripura - the most result oriented card at the end of the day was its right equation with tribal population and a successful alliance with N C Debbarma-led faction IPFT. Compared to IPFT, another tribal-based party led by former militant-turned-neta Bijoy Kumar Hrangkhaw's Indigenous Nationalist Party of Twipra (INPT) could not strike a chord with the tribal population.
Nearly 80 percent of the state's 37 lakh people are Bengali-speaking Hindus, mostly migrated from Bangladesh. Tribals mostly Christians were once the majority in what is Tripura, now comprise less than a third of the state's population. The CPI-M led Left Front ruled the state since 1978 barring five years gap between 1988 and 1993 when Congress was in power.
The tribal support base of the CPI-M has been shaken. The tribals too joined the rest of the state in unseating the Marxists - who could not provide jobs to the people nor brought development.
BJP leaders say the abundant turnout of tribals in BJP rallies were a pointer that good performance of the saffron party in the elections would give them an edge to tarnish opposition charge that the pro-Hindutva outfit is against tribals and the Christians.
Political observers say, there has been a visible nervousness in the CPI-M camp on erosion of tribal support base and therefore none other than the Chief Minister Manik Sarkar – with 20 years experience in power – did try to woo the Bengali voters by telling them repeatedly that the BJP has tied up with a tribal group and could ‘divide’ the state once they come to power. But the campaign did not impress Bengali voters.
Shift of anti-Left vote owing to Mamata-Yechury nexus helped BJP
The shift of over 37 per cent anti-Left vote share to the right wing BJP camp in this year's polls did all the difference, trends of vote count in Tripura showed.
According to Election Commission sources, the BJP's vote share shot up to about 50 per cent in this year's polls as against 1.5 per cent in 2013. Even the much talked about 'Narendra Modi wave' in 2014 Lok Sabha did not cut much ice with the voters in Tripura - a long held CPI-M fortress. In 2013, the Congress vote share was 37 per cent and this significant "anti-Left" vote shifted to the BJP camp by 2016-17 after Sitaram Yechury of CPI-M and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee tried to strike a bond to oppose Prime Minister Narendra Modi's demonetisation move.
This frustrated Trinamool legislators and party workers as they found fighting Left in Tripura would not be possible if there was some kind of alliance at the national level. The result is nosedive in the CPI-M vote percentage also as from 52 per cent vote share in 2013, the CPI-M could poll only 45 per cent votes in this year's polls.
The polls into Tripura assembly this year was also billed as the first direct electoral contest between the right wing BJP and the communists.
"We came to BJP via Trinamool Congress of Mamata Banerjee because sometime back we thought she was the only leader in the country who could fight the CPI-M in Bengal and outside Bengal. But her hobnobbing with the Marxists during demonetisation protest left anti-Left workers in Tripura in the lurch. I have been a Congressman but my workers forced me to join BJP," Manoj Kanti Deb, BJP candidate from Kamalpur, told UNI.
The result is nosedive in the CPI-M vote percentage also as from 52 per cent vote share in 2013, the CPI-M could poll only 45 per cent votes in this year's polls. The Congress vote share also came down from about 37 per cent to around near negligible one per cent.
Agreeing with Mr Deb, other political observers also say that the dynamics of politics is such that there is always an anti-establishment voter. "He or she longs for a political platform to ventilate his views vis-a-vis the party the person wants to oppose. These anti-establishment or anti-incumbency voters generally stuck to the Congress. It was a kind of compulsion though most often we felt suffocated and worse even betrayed by our high command," says a local Congress leader in Agartala.
Another issue that figured prominently was the Rose Valley Chit fund scam wherein several CPI-M leaders and state ministers have been subject to public scrutiny. Social Welfare Minister Bijitha Nath at one point openly endorsed the Rose Valley business. Chief Minister Manik Sarkar also had inaugurated the company’s amusement park in Agartala.
According to a shopkeeper Sapan Deb Roy in Bagbasa, “In fact, Left leaders like Bijitha Nath have damaged CPI-M credibility. The developments related to Rose Valley is similar to 2G scam of UPA where Manmohan Singh remained silent. Here Manik Sarkar has maintained silence and hurt people’s interests”.
Ends
Shift of anti-Left vote owing to Mamata-Yechury nexus helped BJP
The shift of over 37 per cent anti-Left vote share to the right wing BJP camp in this year's polls did all the difference, trends of vote count in Tripura showed.
According to Election Commission sources, the BJP's vote share shot up to about 50 per cent in this year's polls as against 1.5 per cent in 2013. Even the much talked about 'Narendra Modi wave' in 2014 Lok Sabha did not cut much ice with the voters in Tripura - a long held CPI-M fortress. In 2013, the Congress vote share was 37 per cent and this significant "anti-Left" vote shifted to the BJP camp by 2016-17 after Sitaram Yechury of CPI-M and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee tried to strike a bond to oppose Prime Minister Narendra Modi's demonetisation move.
This frustrated Trinamool legislators and party workers as they found fighting Left in Tripura would not be possible if there was some kind of alliance at the national level. The result is nosedive in the CPI-M vote percentage also as from 52 per cent vote share in 2013, the CPI-M could poll only 45 per cent votes in this year's polls.
The polls into Tripura assembly this year was also billed as the first direct electoral contest between the right wing BJP and the communists.
"We came to BJP via Trinamool Congress of Mamata Banerjee because sometime back we thought she was the only leader in the country who could fight the CPI-M in Bengal and outside Bengal. But her hobnobbing with the Marxists during demonetisation protest left anti-Left workers in Tripura in the lurch. I have been a Congressman but my workers forced me to join BJP," Manoj Kanti Deb, BJP candidate from Kamalpur, told UNI.
The result is nosedive in the CPI-M vote percentage also as from 52 per cent vote share in 2013, the CPI-M could poll only 45 per cent votes in this year's polls. The Congress vote share also came down from about 37 per cent to around near negligible one per cent.
Agreeing with Mr Deb, other political observers also say that the dynamics of politics is such that there is always an anti-establishment voter. "He or she longs for a political platform to ventilate his views vis-a-vis the party the person wants to oppose. These anti-establishment or anti-incumbency voters generally stuck to the Congress. It was a kind of compulsion though most often we felt suffocated and worse even betrayed by our high command," says a local Congress leader in Agartala.
Another issue that figured prominently was the Rose Valley Chit fund scam wherein several CPI-M leaders and state ministers have been subject to public scrutiny. Social Welfare Minister Bijitha Nath at one point openly endorsed the Rose Valley business. Chief Minister Manik Sarkar also had inaugurated the company’s amusement park in Agartala.
According to a shopkeeper Sapan Deb Roy in Bagbasa, “In fact, Left leaders like Bijitha Nath have damaged CPI-M credibility. The developments related to Rose Valley is similar to 2G scam of UPA where Manmohan Singh remained silent. Here Manik Sarkar has maintained silence and hurt people’s interests”.
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