“The myth about Modi’s invincibility has been broken in Gujarat," said R. Lyngdoh, leader of the opposition Congress party in the Christian-dominated Meghalaya state, where elections are due in February.
A series of provincial elections due this year in India, including some in Christian strongholds, are expected to set the ball rolling for next year’s general election that will decide the fate of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his pro-Hindu party. These days every political move in the nation raises the same basic question in the media: Could Modi, known for theatrically blending economic development with his zealot Hindu nationalism, win another term in 2019?
Most surveys have found Modi to be the most popular politician in the world’s most populous democracy of 1.2 billion people, 30 percent of them illiterate. But that cannot ensure him of another term in power.
Modi's invincibility in Question
Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) narrowly managed to win just 99 seats to retain power in the 182-member Gujarat house. In fact, it lost 16 sitting seats while Congress gained 16 seats from the last election to improve its number to 77.
“It showed the fault lines in BJP’s election strategy, however good they may be. And they can be humbled,” Lyngdoh said.
The Gujarat polls have changed impressions and given renewed impetus to Congress, which could be reflected in the provincial elections this year, according to political observer G V Anshuman Rao of GV Sudhakar Rao Foundation.
The Gujarat election “actually gives an impression that Congress under its new president Rahul Gandhi is showing purpose in its actions and could challenge Modi. Rahul’s arrival also means that the 2019 battle will not be one-sided,” he said.
The issues that put Modi and BJP on the defensive in Gujarat are also “relevant for all the states” that go to the polls this year, said K. T. Chuba, Congress leader in Nagaland state. The Christian-majority states of Nagaland and Meghalaya along with Tripura must get a new government by March. While Karnataka is to elect a government in May, elections must be conducted by the end of this year in four other states — Mizoram, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan.
Gujarat elections showed that “people are angry” with the BJP and Modi because of issues like “farmers’ distress, unemployment, a sloppy tax system and ill-advised economic decisions,” said Chuba. “The same yardstick and issues will apply to the elections in other states,” particularly in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, where the BJP has been winning elections since 2003, he said.
But the BJP has a better chance in the Christian-majority states of Nagaland and Meghalaya.
J. A. Lyngdoh, a BJP leader in Catholic-majority Meghalaya, said the BJP’s only promise is to provide a corruption-free government focused on people’s socioeconomic development in the state. The hilly state state’s 2.9 million people, of whom 75 percent are Christians, will accept the BJP to end the 15-year rule of Congress, Lyngdoh said.
In Baptist-majority Nagaland, the BJP already shares power in a coalition led by the state-based Nagaland People’s Front.
Christians, who make up 90 percent of Nagaland’s 1.9 million people, cannot be bothered with the pro-Hindu nationalism of the BJP, said a Christian leader who asked not to be named.
Ethnic Naga people, who form the majority in the state, look toward supporting a federal government that will support their regional government to help accelerate their development, the Christian leader said.
In Nagaland, a good number of Nagas – who are mostly Baptist Christians – are still largely with Modi – politically. In fact, Nagaland People’s Front (a state based party) is an ally of BJP and has the potential to bounce back to power yet again along with BJP. In Meghalaya, certain social complicity offers opportunities to the BJP. The poll managers in the saffron party are interacting aggressively with ‘non-Christian local tribal groups’ and try to draw political mileage of the extreme swings between modernity and antiquity. BJP leader J A Lyngdoh says only agenda of BJP is development and a ‘corruption-free government’ in Meghalaya.
This issue is making serious impact even in communist rule Tripura, another northeastern state where polls are due in February-March. On a trip to Tripura, BJP chief Amit Shah told party rallies that several communist leaders – known for their alleged corruption – may be put behind bars once BJP captures power in the state. CPI-Marxists are in power in Tripura since 1995 and there are numerous instances where ‘power and absolute powers’ have spoiled the comrades!
Recently, a court order indicted the Marxist regime for faulty appointment of as many as 10,023 primary school teachers – seen as a test case of nepotism and favouritism under the communists. This is why a huge number of youths are coming out of parties like Congress and decided to join BJP in Tripura.
Corruption-free administration attracts ordinary voters, said political observer Anshuman Rao.
However, he had a warning for Congress well-wishers. “In electoral politics, the last-minute delivery — booth management — is important. It means there is no replacement for good organisation. This is lacking in Congress.”
Elsewhere too,
Modi is trying to deliver on corruption front and a former Bihar Chief Minister
Lalu Prasad Yadav, a bitter Modi critic, has been jailed for fodder scam in
1990s. Delivering on
corruption front and picking up issues like Triple Talaq of Muslim women to ban
the practice seek to address the core BJP voters.
However, in
Meghalaya in particular say local Christian leaders the controversy pertaining
to beef ban is harming BJP. Local BJP leaders privately admit that beef ban
remains a matter of concern even as in last two months over a dozen Congress
legislators and former ministers have joined BJP.
The ‘desertion’ in
Congress party is actually an indication that the electoral mood is in favour
of ‘change’ both in Meghalaya and Tripura. In both the states – BJP seems to be
in striking distance to power – either alone or in alliance with smaller
regional parties like National People’s Party – which was once founded by a
prominent Christian leader Late P A Sangma.
Thus, many analysts wonder perhaps with a better ‘organisational strength’ Congress could have actually come to power in Gujarat. Among the lapses, a former police officer in Gujarat – who is against BJP – says, at one stage, Congress poll managers gave up the micro planning. They never understood the importance of vote-cutter parties and Independents. When the result came, Independents could eventually polled 4.5 percent of the anti-BJP vote. This made difference in several seats. In some constituencies again, BSP candidates and especially Muslims also eat into vote share of the Congress candidates. Who will then bell the cat?
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