Uttar Pradesh elections show a swing to 'Hindu nationalism' : Is that a national trend?

The pivotal Uttar Pradesh elections show a swing towards 'Hindu nationalism' and a vastly weakened opposition

Prime Minister Narendra Modi overcame difficulties and major hurdles. His decision to demonetize high-value currency notes in November 2016 pushed millions of poor into hardship but it was presented as fight against the black money of the rich and ultimately helped the BJP win support of these voters.

On March 11, when the result came in for elections in five Indian states, especially the most populous Uttar Pradesh, it marked a leap forward for Hindu nationalists.

The success of the pro-Hindu Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) rested safely on the shoulders of its leader and Narendra Modi as he packaged and presented his winning image of a Hindu zealot who struggles hard for India’s development.

The February polls in five states including Manipur and Goa, which have sizeable Christian populations, Modi played the role of "dream merchant" promising jobs, good roads and improvement in law and order in a country that has long suffered bad governance.

In Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP has been in power only once in the last two decades, Modi addressed over 50 rallies ostensibly exposing misgovernment and caste-based politics. At each place, he also reminded his audience that he is still looking out for Hindu interests.

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"If land is given for a [Muslim] cemetery in a village, it should also be given for [Hindu] cremation. If electricity is supplied during Ramadan, it should also be supplied during Diwali. There should not be discrimination," Modi had said at a rally trying to take a shot at the rival Samajwadi Party that have been accused of appeasing Muslims.

Furthermore - luck would have it too. As they say, in politics fortune often favours the one who makes first move bravely.

The rivals Congress and Samajwadi Party (the socialist party with good support base among a caste group Yadavs and Muslims) tried to reach out to the religious minority, Modi’s half the task became easier. Hence as he achieved ‘reverse polarisation’ among Hindus -- the result was near decimation of all rivals and BJP ended up picking 312 seats in 403-member assembly.

The 'reverse polarisation' of majority Hindus and BJP's calculated strategy not to field Muslims - as was the 'real Gujarat model' of electoral strategy - have largely led to massive victory for the saffron party and also resulted in significant drop  in the number of Muslim legislators in the country's largest state. The number of Muslim legislators in the newly-elected UP Assembly has come down to 25 - an all time low in the recent past. Even at the height of Ram Mandir movement there were at least 28 Muslim legislators in the state Assembly in 1993.

The BJP strategically did not field Muslim candidates and the number of Muslim legislators in the newly-elected house has dropped down to 25. 

Hence it is not without good reason, a prominent Hindu hardliner told this writer: “We achieved one milestone of our Hindutva agenda as number of Muslims in UP assembly has come down to 25. In 1990s, we had reduced Muslim voters and leaders as non-entity in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh, and now we have got this in UP. We thank people of Uttar Pradesh for that”.

Modi and Moditva: Varanasi Roads

This – reduced number of Muslim legislators - is a tall order to achieve as the northern state (Uttar Pradesh) otherwise accounts for about 19 per cent of Muslim population – and who are also known for their political affirmative approach.

In fact in 2012 assembly polls, the Muslim MLAs strength was 68 in 2012 and was 56 in 2007. Hence the BJP has achieved a key Hindutva agenda – exclusion of Muslims.  

The result and BJP strategy makes many observers wonder if the Hindu nationalist party is pushing religious minorities into political irrelevance in its march toward a 'Hindu-only nation'.

The BJP has achieved a key goal: the exclusion of Muslims from politics without needing to be explicit about it -- without talking much about it in real sense. 

This development was helped by the political failure of rival parties, chiefly the Congress party, led by an Italian-born Sonia Gandhi, widow of a former Indian Prime Minister, and their son Rahul Gandhi.

Young Muslims

While she has been unwell for quite some time, Rahul Gandhi as the Congress Vice President has been unable to match the electoral aggressiveness of Modi.

Wresting the prowess to govern India’s most populous state with reduced number of Muslim legislators is only one part of the story. To many, the mandate this year shows that not only Sangh Parivar’s will has prevailed, it is also a sign that the RSS leadership is now resting much hopes on the former Gujarat chief minister, who pioneered his version of Hindutva movement in 2002.  

Life has truly come a full circle for the former RSS ‘pracharak’, Modi.  It is also a testimony to the fact that the RSS headquarter has reason to celebrate that PM Modi will live up to their expectations to exploit his ‘nationwide’ good will to revive the Hindutva movement – at least the three main contentious agenda – Uniform Civil code, Ayodhya Ram temple and abrogation of a special article in Jammu and Kashmir.

Muslim leaders also have their views that suggests Modi’s polarization also has to do with the folly of the other side.
"In these elections, Congress and other secular parties - SP and BSP lost not only electorally, but also morally," he says. 
"Humey toh kucch nahi mila (We did not get anything)," lamented one shopkeeper in Noida – commenting on the performance of secular parties just few days before the vote count actually took place. 

This development was helped by the political failure of rival parties, chiefly the Congress party, led by an Italian-born Sonia Gandhi, widow of a former Indian Prime Minister, and their son Rahul Gandhi.

While she has been unwell for quite some time, Rahul Gandhi as the Congress Vice President has been unable to match the electoral aggressiveness of Modi.

Congress, in the past, has ruled intermittently in coalitions, espousing secularism and equal rights for all religions but were unable to keep voter confidence.

"The secular brigade did not do much for the minorities. Their bluff was always going to be exposed one day," said BJP leader Sudanshu Trivedi.

Quereshi feels let down by SECULAR FORCES

Agra-based Jamaluddin Quereshi, a Muslim, said: "Indiscriminate attacks on Prime Minister Modi, unreasonable actions in the name of Muslim welfare and an inability to contain corruption have discredited the secular parties."

To many, the mandate this year also shows that not only Hindu hardliners have prevailed, it is also a sign that Hindu nationalists are continuing to rest their hopes on Modi to deliver Hindu hegemony.

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