Diplomacy can be also defined as a confrontation-preventing
and solution-oriented mechanism. An unstable Myanmar is always a matter of
concern vis-a-vis insurgency-hit northeastern states.
'Persuasive diplomacy' is a
skill wherein a fine synthesis of soft approach and authoritative manner is
utilized to influence the mindset and subsequent policies of another country. India needs to experiment this proficiently with
Myanmar
in order to achieve lasting results in northeast India.
I have tried to emphasis earlier that the foreign policy with
regard to India’s South Asian neighbours is often understood as a mere tool of combating
insurgency. As a result the diplomatic thrust for the region and smaller
countries like Myanmar
always remained neglected.
In the meantime, Myanmar has
seen some transitions. A resemblance of democracy has come in and in circa 2015
all eyes – as expected - would be on the general elections likely to be held by
October-November.
But the people of Myanmar and more importantly the
political machineries in that country – essential elements to run a democracy –
have to ironically grapple with certain realities.
There is 25 per cent of the seats reserved for
the military in parliament that gives them veto rights against any
constitutional change. In more ways than one they say, the people of Myanmar continue to be bewildered
by the “new-old” system where military has upper hand on major issues.
Now importantly for New Delhi, the Indian government needs to be
on guard about certain things – technically internal matter of Myanmar - but
very sensitive for Indian diplomatic establishment especially in the context of
ruling BJP's keenness to have improved relations between Nagas in Nagaland and
Manipur with the Nagas in Myanmar.
PM Modi with Suu Kyi |
Now in last few years if the political turmoil
and sustained international pressure one way or the other changed the lives of common
Myanmarese, it has also things for Nagas in Myanmar who have often suffered the
loss of home, lives and culture.
Did they often feel unwanted in their homeland thus
also deserve finer scrutiny.
A sizeable portion in
western Myanmar is dominated
by the ethnic Nagas, who share biological fraternity with the Nagas in India . Thus it
is often argued by political parties in Indian side of the border and also
security experts in the South Block that the condition of Nagas in Myanmar can
have some impact vis-à-vis the insurgency movement of the Nagas this side.
Reportedly, the Nagaland government has earlier
this year submitted a paper to the centre on these lines.
Former Nagaland CM Rio with Naga delegation from Myanmar |
But having said these it needs to be appreciated
that certain aspects of supposedly internal matters of Myanmar can easily
bamboozle Indian government, which despite subjected to all kinds of criticism
has been practicing functional democracy for over six decades.
The
military commanders in Myanmar
continue to have the “final say” in the appointment of the Defence minister, Home
minister and the minister of Border Affairs. We have spoken earlier about veto
powers of Myanmar ’s
military rulers for any possible drastic constitutional changes.
Moreover,
the new constitutional mechanism there enshrines that military has the constitutional right to seize power if the President
decides. So in 2015 on the context of general elections later in the year, we
could wake up to yet another dawn of military coup. And it could actually
happen very easily. “It wouldn’t be a coup like before; it would be a
constitutional handover of power to the military,” renowned Myanmar
watcher, Bertil Lintner told me during a recent interaction.
This
would mean the Naga Self-Administered Zone in western Myanmar as
stipulated by the 2008 constitutional norms would end up as a scratch.
These can combine
together to make things somewhat complicated for New Delhi
in dealing with the emotive and sensitive issue of relationship between Nagas
in India and their fraternal
counterparts in Myanmar .
The policy makers
in New Delhi under Prime Minister Narendra Modi
and especially his trusted National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval therefore
ought to take matters concerning northeast India
and neighbours like Myanmar
more seriously.
It
is significant to note that while delivering an address to mark the foundation
day of the National Investigation Agency (NIA), the Union Minister of State for
Home, Kiren Rijiju has said that, “There is no need to adopt hawkish foreign
policy. We are naturally a soft power. But soft does not mean weak. We have to
be firm, responsible and strong in our resolve”
Rijiju is a key
leader from Arunachal Pradesh and reportedly shares good working rapport with
the NSA Doval. Thus the Junior Home Minister’s remarks are well taken. In deed
the statement spells good intent and sincere understanding of matters. But at
the same time one needs to underline that New Delhi ’s
foreign policy engine room, that is the PMO and the NSA in particular, needs to
be pro-active vis-à-vis hitherto neglected neighbours like Myanmar .
The army-dictated 2008 Constitution is not
only clearly offering an win-win situation to military, it also bars Suu Kyi
from becoming president or vice president.
The constitution requires the approval of
75 per cent of parliament to amend major portions of the charter and so army-inspired
hurdle for any drastic measure is only predictable. Can India make some
difference in all these? This is a test of its persuasive diplomacy.
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