Despite 'wake up' call in Gujarat, 'Moditva magic' works for BJP

The 'Moditva' as a brand must have survived in the year 2017 for the BJP but the outcome of just concluded Gujarat elections that saw Prime Minister Narendra Modi make blistering campaigns left a few crucial political lessons for Modi-Amit Shah duo.It is probably for the first time in last three and half years since BJP came to power in 2014, it has to reconcile to the fact that the 2019 parliamentary elections will not be a cakewalk as was perhaps presumed earlier.
The agrarian distress and winning support base in rural India remains BJP's formidable challenges.

Modi's pioneering 'slogan' in Ahmedabad

But Mr Modi's mass appeal seemed to make all the difference in electoral politics. While he saved BJP's prestige in Gujarat - making use of a seaplane flight on the ultimate day of campaign, in Uttar Pradesh and elsewhere the success of the pro-Hindu party rested safely on the shoulders of its leader and Mr Modi as he packaged and presented his winning image of a Hindu leader who struggles hard for India’s development.

The BJP as a ruling dispensation and Narendra Modi's government had come under severe criticism for the GST and its demonetization move in 2016 and a reduced number of seats in Modi-Shah's home state were like spoilsport for the party which otherwise had enough reasons to ring out the circa 2017 on a celebratory note.

Experts interpreted verdict in his native state - a formerly Hindutva laboratory and a hub of 'Gujarat model' of development - as a "wake up" call. Sadly, for Mr Modi - his style of campaigning - often vitriolic especially against his predecessor Manmohan Singh was also seen as unbecoming of a Prime Minister.

But in the ultimate for the party, Mr Modi remains its star face and it was purely his 'mass appeal' that saw BJP successfully brave 22-year-old incumbency in Gujarat -- even as the number of seats declined by 16 from whatwas in 2012.

Speaking politically, BJP consolidated its hold across the country gaining power for itself and its allies across 19 states - a record by itself. Previous best haul of Congress party was 18 during the hey days of Indira Gandhi. The saffron party - often underestimated and slammed for its pro-Hindutva politics, wrested power in another northeastern state of Manipur. 

In 2016 it had stormed to power in Assam.

As the stage is set to usher in a new year, the BJP and its chief vote-catcher Mr Modi has set the stage for their first face-to-face battle in the February-March 2018 assembly polls in Congress-ruled Meghalaya and Marxists-ruled Tripura.

In terms of political consolidation, BJP wrested power in the year in country's most populous state of Uttar Pradesh - besides Goa and Uttarakhand while the power slipped out of Akali Dal-BJP combine in Punjab. The pivotal Uttar Pradesh state elections show a swing to Hindu nationalism - a fact demonstrated by emergence of Yogi Adityanath as the Chief Minister and also at a later state Congress chief Rahul Gandhi forced to undertake temple hopping and play up 'soft Hindutva' in Gujarat polls.

In terms of political strategy, BJP played a mixed-policy with Muslims. In Uttar Pradesh, it did not field Muslim candidates and the number of Muslim legislators in the newly-elected House has dropped down to 25, an all-time low.

But the Triple Talaq Bill piloted by it in Parliament would be seen in times to come as one of the best known political googly of our time.

On December 28 as the Lok Sabha gave its nod to the Muslim Women (Protection of Rights on Marriage) Bill, 2017 bringing the practice of Triple Talaq within the ambit of criminal offence, BJP lawmaker Meenakshi Lekhi said, 

"When they have a brother like Narendra Modi, they do not need to be afraid of anyone".

Among other electoral battles, the BJP stormed back to power in Himachal Pradesh. In northeastern state
of Tripura, the saffron party officially entered the Tripura assembly after the Speaker on December 8 recognised
six former Trinamool Congress legislators who had defected to the party as BJP members.
"The isolation of Congress has brought the BJP to the centre stage of national politics. The sheer opportunism displayed by regional parties like Trinamool Congress in dealing with the CPI(M) has weakened Mamata Banerjee's party in Tripura. All these are helping BJP cause," said Gautam Biswas, a former Trinamool leader in Tripura. 

It is not only states like Tripura, which is otherwise fund-staved and is vulnerable to political manipulation, even in Tamil Nadu, the BJP is serious about making its bid.
Post-Jayalalitha, eyeing the political vacuum, the BJP has tried to gain ground but the bypoll election at RK Nagar showed that things are still far off.

Now the BJP has set its eyes in Congress-ruled Karnataka that will see elections in May and also in Meghalaya - wherein it has decided to go soft on the beef ban row where Christian votes will be key to winning seats.

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Modi’s unstoppable march challenged ?? Or its all hype?

No one doubted victory of the BJP and Narendra Modi in Gujarat. But this time it is no cakewalk ! 

When the first phase of elections ended in the western state on December 9, predicting the final outcome became fraught. A second stage in the election is set for December 14, with the victors and the vanquished to be announced four days later. Lalit Thummar, president of the Amreli Diamond Merchants' Association, said this time it is no cakewalk for the BJP.”

His association represents enterprises that process and export most of India’s diamonds, which constitute a significant part of all international trade in the precious stones. Thummar believes that two key decisions of the government led by Modi undermined prosperity in the state. The first was a decision to withdraw high-value banknotes from circulation in November 2016, purportedly to fight black market operations. And he cited as second major factor the goods and services Tax (GST) introduced in July this year. The middle class, mid-level entrepreneurs, traders and small business people who were Modi supporters had been most adversely affected, Thummar explained. Observers say the result of the Gujarat election could affect the stability of the national Modi government, not least through exacerbating ongoing leadership struggles within the BJP. 

This, in turn, threatened to impact on general elections scheduled for 2019.Social analyst Parthbhai Bhatt noted that the BJP, sensing trouble, had announced a relaxation of the tax regime. But it remained unclear as to how far that would mitigate against self-inflicted political damage already done.

Bhatt noted that the Prime Minister took the state electoral battle seriously as a defeat, or even a poor performance, could erode his support base across the nation.BJP poll strategists are promoting the message that economic growth and greater social justice have been achieved at a state level along with the tackling of corruption.

The BJP’s rival opposition Congress Party, which has been out of power in Gujarat for 22 years, sees an opportunity to revive its electoral fortunes nationally by exploiting anti-incumbency feeling within the state.Nationally, Congress suffered a shocking defeat to the BJP in 2014. Congress was reduced to 44 seats in the 543 seats national parliament. This was despite having run the government in New Delhi for most of the period since independence in 1947.

Congress winning the Gujarat election, or bettering its current position of 60 seats, would provide an impetus for the party and its new leader, Rahul Gandhi, to become a serious contender for power nationally in 2019, Bhatt said. And a victory in Gujarat would be made sweeter for Congress by the fact that the state is considered a stronghold of the BJP and Modi, who was its Chief Minister from 2001 to 2014. 

Sensing an opportunity, the Congress Party has struck at BJP weak points such as the new tax policy.Congress leader, Randeep Singh Surjewala, told ucanews.com that the BJP had made the tax system complex and difficult to implement.Modi has thrown himself into the thick of campaigning, addressing a series of rallies ahead of the second phase of voting on December 14.Some pre-poll surveys indicated that there would be a close fight.

One survey predicted that the BJP would gain 91-99 seats in the 182-member house and the Congress Party 78-86.

The BJP is faced with a tight contest partly because Hindu political unity has frayed. And some leaders of Dalit groups, formerly known as untouchables, have disassociated themselves from the BJP.Hindu vigilante groups formed to protect cows, an animal they revere, have attacked Dalit people in recent years for transporting cattle or dealing in their hides.

And two groups of the Patel Hindu caste that make up the Patidar community have complained that the government has ignored their demand for more seats to be reserved for them. Agitation on the issue took a violent turn and some Patel youths were killed. A number of their leaders were jailed.

Rameshbhai Valia, a Gujarat bank employee, said after two decades of BJP rule it could be time for a change.

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