The year 2015 was some kind of a political nightmare
for Narendra Modi – the politician. Probably for the first time since 2001 –
when he was made Gujarat Chief Minister – never had Modi tasted such difficult
situations and sadly for him, he could not give the befitting reply to his
detractors – something he had made a sort of habit post-2002.
When calendar year 2001 ended, Modi was a shy Chief
Minister, almost a reluctant ruler and often clueless how to capture ‘hamaro
Gujarat’ for his saffron party. But since February 27, 2002 train compartment inferno
at Godhra, he has shot into limelight by braving through all the challenging
times.
Electorally,
BJP lost two crucial polls badly Delhi and Bihar…. Minorities were isolated
further with nuns and churches attacked, Awards returned and the unnecessary beef
debate.
Has
the countdown for the decline begun? Amid these, new challenges in 2016 remain
putting back economy on track, fighting elections in some key states and
intra-party differences as BJP veterans like L K Advani, M M Joshi and Yashwant
Sinha likely to sustain more pressure against Modi-Amit Shah duo.
But how has
Indian economy remained unhindered – literally ! – given the mood in media and
political circle otherwise as if India almost its Indianness in 2015??
A closer look at economy gives up a few take aways. Eight core
industries, representing major infrastructure sectors, grew at 2.3 percent in
the April-September period of the current fiscal, compared to a rate of 5.3
percent in the same period of the previous fiscal.
Analysts say the fall in growth rate is caused by
lower expansion in electricity, coal and cement sectors and negative growth in
steel and natural gas sectors.
The mid-year review lowered the economic growth
forecast for the current fiscal to the 7-7.5 percent range, from the previously
projected 8.1-8.5 per cent, mainly because of lower agricultural output due to
deficit rainfall.
Globally, India remained a fastest expanding economy
surpassing China. India's external position has improved. Forex reserves are a
little above $350 billion in November 2015 as compared to a little over $270
billion in July 2013. Net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows have
increased to $17 billion in the first half of 2015-16 in comparison to $15.8 in
the same period last year.
In the words of Abhishek Lodha, managing director of Lodha Group,
“2015 has been a year in which we think that the economy has started healing
itself”. India’s GDP
grew by an annual rate of 7.4 per cent in the July-to-September quarter,
putting it firmly ahead of China, where growth slowed to 6.9 per cent in the
same period.
Another macro
analsysis suggests, India’s growth has been “uneven and driven majorly by
private consumption and public investment”. Well, it is established economic
wisdom that for robust and sustainable growth, private investment needs to grow
northbound graph while exports needs to revive.
So, a safe
conclusion is there are miles to go – to take out the country’s economy from
the stage when even Dr Manmohan Singh was easily dubbed as an ‘underachiever’.
The government and
the pro-Modi would insist that things are improving. The Department of
Industrial Policy & Promotion (DIPP) is working on a proposal for
simplifying of the overall framework encompassing all industrial sectors and
galvanising it with the FDI policy. Reforms to be unfurled gradually in state
electricity boards and FDI liberalisation would hopefully put the developmental
agenda back on track. The government also plans to come out with bankruptcy
guidelines for easier exits of businesses and give protection to lenders and
investors.
In the words of Nirmala Sitharaman, the union Commerce Minister, India offers certain sense of stability,
which today economies long to have. "India is an inviting investor's
domain,” she said. I would like every investor to look at it," Sitharaman
said during her visit to Washington in September.
True to
her words, global demand, economy and prospects of looking at what could happen
in next few months require a lot of light and positive energy. Left to him, the
Prime Minister is alcoholic and is making his ministers work.
While detractors would call these mere rhetoric and use strong
words like ‘nothing is happening’; looking at certain parameters, for an
economy that faces challenges --- it is no less credit that it is able to sustain
a certain momentum.
Post-Bihar
polls, taking a corrective course, Modi government issued executive orders
relaxing FDI norms. The year 2015 also saw Indian stock markets correcting the excess hype created in 2014 following Modi’s victory. The benchmark Bombay Stock Exchange index reached an all-time high of above 30,000 in March but steadily declined to finish the year trading at under 26,000.
The year 2015 also saw Indian stock markets correcting the excess hype created in 2014 following Modi’s victory. The benchmark Bombay Stock Exchange index reached an all-time high of above 30,000 in March but steadily declined to finish the year trading at under 26,000.
The continued
logjam in the parliament led investors to worry and not without good reason.
2015 also did not bring the hoped-for growth in residential real estate even as
bad days seem to be coming to an end.
India also
made a move towards creating a more transparent regulated property market with
right changes in the long-awaited real estate regulation and development laws.
Finally, to talk
about India’s economy – one needs to talk about poverty – as this still remains
a curse but also a responsibility. It is tragic that when the world and India
as a nation has technological and even economic capacity to abolish poverty,
perhaps the greed menace and the fear that quality of life of affluent would be
affected is preventing policy makers to achieve so.