Voting in Kerala, Assam is over :::: How ‘Love Jihad’ statements made by BJP was campaign fodder for the LDF ? ::::: Assam's Muslim population was 34.22 percent in 2011 and keeps increasing

 The CPI(M) is attracting Muslim voters in the key southern India state by projecting the BJP as a 'big threat' to the community. 

The political undercurrents suggest that it may be premature to predict the final outcome in Kerala as victory margins could be even under 3,000 votes in as many as 30 constituencies.

The ‘Love Jihad’ statements made by BJP leaders from time to time had become campaign fodder for the Left in 2026 polls. 

               BJP supporters holding a photograph of Modi during Bihar assembly elections in 2021 

Kerala elections often present a different paradox. The Communist Party of India (Marxists), seen as ideologically 'secular and class-focused',  has in 2021 and also this year adopted what critics call “soft Hindutva”.

This enables a subtle accommodation of majority religious sentiment and the aim to win Hindu votes. Traditionally and otherwise, Hindus in Kerala may not like the CPI-M or LDF but they would vote for the ruling alliance in the state just because they do not want Indian Union of Muslim League (IUML) to come to power. 

The IUML is a strong constituent of the Congress-led UDF.  

An important takeaway is that the Congress swept the Lok Sabha polls in Kerala in 2024 Lok Sabha polls on the backing of Muslim support. 

Its performance in the civic polls last year mirrored the trend. Should that change a little, the Congress-led UDF's shot at power could be in doldrums yet again.

Going by previous trends, the Congress should have won 2021 assembly polls; but it had failed. 

In Assam, the BJP has been in power since 2016.

Assam’s diverse demographics—tribal communities, Hindus, Muslims, and Christians and linguistic groups Hindu Bengalis, Bhojpuris and even Tea garden communities — make identity politics more unpredictable. 

The state’s Muslim population was 34.22 percent in 2011 and continues to increase. 

Alleged “infiltration” of Bengali-speaking Muslims from Bangladesh remains a contentious electoral issue, especially in the tea- and coal-rich Upper Assam region.

Polling Day scene in Bengali dominated Silchar

Deserted Day on April 9 'due to rains' (Barak Valley)

The economic stagnation and joblessness are issues those breeds immense resentment.

Firebrand but former Congressman Himanta Biswa Sarma is BJP's face in the state. He is known for hardline pro-Hindutva policies and hence faces mounting public dissatisfaction in many quarters. Critics cite his government’s anti-Christian measures—law against magical healing and restrictions on beef supply. 

Besides Cachar belt where there are substantial Muslim population in Karimganj-Halikandi belt; the Bengali population could decide electoral fortunes in Hojai, Lumding and Nagaon-Batadraba regions. 

In fact, in Nagaon region (now having overwhelming Muslim population mostly Bengalis with roots in Bengladesh); there is a locality called Dhakapatty because Hindu migrants had shifted here around 1947 from the present Bangladesh capital Dhaka.

Aging voters exercising their franchise in Assam  

It goes without stating that Muslims could play a key role in closely-contested seats in Assam as well as in Kerala.

In Kerala, the Congress is aligned with the Muslim-dominated Welfare Party of India (WPI) while the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI), the political face of the banned Popular Front of India, has offered unconditional support to LDF to ensure the BJP’s defeat.

Victory margins could be even under 3,000 votes in many constituencies both in Assam and Kerala.  

An estimated 20 per cent of the Muslim voters in Kerala comprise the youth and women, whose choices may not toe the traditional voting line. 

Gauging this, the IUML has fielded more youth and two women in the general category seats it is contesting in 2026 polls. 

Nationally, the BJP’s strategy does revolve around splitting minority votes and consolidating Hindu support. 

In West Bengal; that's the bigger plot. In Bihar, it succeeded in dividing Muslim votes both in 2020 and 2025 polls.

Obviously, similar tactics were used in campaigns in Assam, Kerala and West Bengal. 

Whatever the outcome. the mandate of these assembly polls in 2026 may determine the balance of power leading into the next general election cycle in 2029. 

In Kerala, the BJP is known for testing its skills and ability to attract Catholics — a long-term project rather than a near-term expectation.

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